The shared currency begins the week on a lower note, down 0.31% as risk aversion fueled flows towards the US Dollar amid heightened tensions in the Middle East. Also, hawkish comments by a Fed official underpinned US Treasury yields, suggesting markets expect the US central bank to raise rates.
UOB’s Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note that USD/CNH fell more than expected to 6.7766 before rebounding, with the sharp decline seen stabilising and intraday consolidation likely between 6.7780 and 6.7920. For the next 1–3 weeks, they expect range trading between 6.7700 and 6.8100.
OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong observe that USD/SGD has turned slightly softer, tracking Renminbi (RMB) gains as the Dollar consolidates. They see risks skewed to the downside, with support at 1.29 and 1.2840 and resistance at 1.2980.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) surges toward 101.30, gaining around 0.3% as escalating tensions between the United States (US) and Iran boost safe-haven demand and drive energy prices sharply higher.
DBS Group Research, led by Ma Tieying, assesses Taiwan’s AI-driven expansion and its implications for the 2H26 outlook. The bank notes that AI remains central for Taiwan’s technology-oriented economy and that the AI supercycle is nearing a peak.
Commerzbank’s Dr. Henry Hao and Moses Lim note that Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) kept the OPR at 2.75% for a sixth straight meeting, maintaining a cautious tone on global risks. Growth is still expected within a 4–5% range, with inflation contained.
The New Zealand Dollar recoiled during Monday’s North American session, down 0.12%, as the Greenback posted gains versus most G8 FX currencies amid rising geopolitical tensions and hawkish comments from a Fed Governor. The NZD/USD trades at 0.5754, down from daily highs of 0.5789.
OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong highlight that USD/CNH dipped after a stronger USD/CNY fix below 6.80, the first such level since February 2023. They read this as policymakers being comfortable with further RMB appreciation while managing the pace.
Silver price remains below $60.00 as the week begins, diving nearly 4% on Monday amid tensions in the Middle East. Hawkish remarks by Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Christopher Waller underpin the Greenback, which, according to the US Dollar Index (DXY), is up by over 0.28%.
USD/JPY trades higher near 162.40 on Monday as the Japanese Yen (JPY) weakens amid escalating tensions between the United States (US) and Iran. The US Dollar (USD) remains supported by higher Oil prices and growing concerns that renewed energy pressure could keep global inflation elevated.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) regains momentum on Monday after hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Christopher Waller boosted expectations of an interest rate hike as early as this month.
UOB’s Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note that USD/SGD opened stronger after a quiet prior session, with upward momentum tentatively building but still facing resistance around 1.2945–1.2955. For the next 1–3 weeks, they keep its view that USD/SGD will trade between 1.2890 and 1.2990.
Gold price (XAU/USD) plunges on Monday after remarks by Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Christopher Waller, who revealed that if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rises this week, the Fed should consider interest rate hikes.
Crude Oil is repricing the death of a framework rather than any single missile exchange.
AUD/USD trades lower near 0.6930 on Monday, retreating from an opening level of around 0.6950 as escalating tensions between the United States (US) and Iran bolster the safe-haven US Dollar (USD) and weigh on the risk-sensitive Australian Dollar (AUD).
The Swiss Franc (CHF) weakens against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday as traders react to renewed hostilities in the Middle East. At the time of writing, USD/CHF trades around 0.8126, up 0.50% on the day and marking its highest level since June 25.
BNY’s Geoff Yu highlights that Emerging Markets (EM) equity positioning is heavily skewed toward South Korea and Taiwan, with the rest of EM seeing historically low allocations. China’s weakness and poor EM data have already driven valuations to price in disinflation and weak growth.
The Pound Sterling begins the week on a lower note, as over-the-weekend developments in the Middle East fueled inflation expectations due to the rise in Oil prices. At the time of writing, the GBP/USD trades at 1.3369, down over 0.20%.
Risk aversion set Monday's tone, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average wore it better than most of its peers; the index trades near 52,525, down 117 points or 0.2%, while the Nasdaq Composite sheds 1% and the S&P 500 gives back 0.4%.
Gold (XAU/USD) starts the week on the back foot as renewed tensions in the Middle East lift Oil prices and bring inflation concerns back into focus, reinforcing expectations of a Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike later this year.
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) outperforms most of its major peers on Monday as renewed tensions in the Middle East push Oil prices higher amid fresh risks of supply disruption in the Strait of Hormuz.
Societe Generale’s Michael Haigh and Jeremy Sellem note that the commodity complex has been resilient to Middle East tensions, with Oil gains capped and forecasts for prices at $70 by year end unchanged.
United States (US) President Donald Trump announced that the Strait of Hormuz is open and will remain accessible to international shipping “with or without Iran,” while outlining a new US-led security arrangement for the strategic waterway.
Danske Research Team reports that overall consumer spending excluding energy in June was broadly unchanged on the month, with real spending up 4.3% year-on-year. Real retail spending on goods rose, particularly in larger consumer categories, while service spending generally declined.
MUFG’s Lee Hardman reports the Japanese Yen has weakened again, pushing USD/JPY back above 162.00 as higher energy prices and fading impact from last week’s verbal intervention weigh on the currency.
Rabobank's Senior Macro Strategist Bas van Geffen highlights a US‑centric data and policy calendar, with June CPI expected to ease to 3.8% year‑on‑year and core inflation to 2.8%.
TD Securities economists Oscar Munoz and Eli Nir highlight that the June FOMC minutes were hawkish, with most participants ready to hike if supply-driven inflation persists.
Commerzbank’s Dr. Jörg Krämer describes Switzerland’s strong federalism and extensive use of financial referenda as key to its superior economic outcomes. Cantons and municipalities compete for taxpayers by setting their own tax rates and controlling spending.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) trades in a tight range against the Euro (EUR) as the Swiss National Bank (SNB) actively works to neutralize safe-haven capital inflows stemming from increased geopolitical woes.
Iran’s top joint military command issued a series of warnings on Monday over the Strait of Hormuz, saying any unauthorized United States (US) transit would be confronted and cautioning neighboring countries against supporting Washington.
Exclusive insights, trading signals, and real-time updates for registered users.