Deutsche Bank economists expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to keep the deposit rate at 2% while markets fully price a June hike due to Europe’s energy exposure.
Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Thursday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $73.36 per troy ounce, up 2.83% from the $71.34 it cost on Wednesday.
MUFG’s Lee Hardman highlights that EUR/USD has slipped back below 1.1700 as the Euro corrects lower into the ECB meeting.
The Euro (EUR) has pulled back form two week highs above 187.50 against the Japanese Yen (JPY) on Thursday, retreating to 186.20 at the time of writing, as Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama launched a clear intervention warning.
The Indian Rupee (INR) claws back some of its early losses against the US Dollar (USD) during afternoon market hours in India on Thursday after plummeting to record lows.
Societe Generale strategists expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to keep rates unchanged today despite a hawkish bias after past late tightening. It warns that unresolved Gulf tensions in six weeks could make a future rate hike more contentious as growth risks rise.
NZD/USD gains ground after two days of losses, trading around 0.5840 during the European hours on Thursday. The technical analysis of the daily chart signals an emerging bearish bias as the pair remains below the ascending channel.
The Bank of England (BoE) is widely expected to hold the benchmark Bank Rate unchanged at 3.75% for a third consecutive meeting on Thursday, as traders assess the impact of the Middle East war on prices and the UK economy.
Danske Research Team highlights that Brent has surged to around USD 124–126 per barrel as Iran-related tensions and a US naval blockade drive supply fears. They note Polymarket-implied odds of only a modest chance of normalised Hormuz traffic by end-May.
USD/JPY trades around 159.50 on Thursday, down 0.59% on the day, after reaching its highest level since July 2024 at 160.73 earlier in the day.
Eurozone flash Q1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth remains lower at 0.1%, while it was expected to have risen steadily by 0.2%. Year-on-Year (YoY) GDP growth remains slower-than-projected at 0.8% vs. 0.9% estimates and the previous reading of 1.2%.
The European Central Bank (ECB) is scheduled to announce its monetary policy decision on Thursday, following its April meeting. The Frankfurt-based institution is widely expected to keep its key interest rates unchanged, leaving the deposit facility at 2%, a level considered broadly neutral.
The United States (US) Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) is set to publish its preliminary estimate of first-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on Thursday, with analysts expecting the data to show annualised growth at a solid 2.3%, a sharp rebound from the meagre 0.5% expansion recorded in the fi
Francesco Pesole at ING argues that Bank of England (BoE) tightening expectations, now close to European Central Bank (ECB) pricing, look excessive given the higher starting rate and less hawkish BoE stance.
The GBP/JPY pair surrenders its entire early gains after posting an intraday high of 216.60 and turns negative to near 215.60, as the Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthens after a strong verbal warning of intervention by Japan’s Finance Minister (FM) Satsuki Katayama.
Dow Jones futures decline 0.52%, trading near 48,750 during the European hours on Thursday, ahead of the United States (US) regular opening. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 fall 0.05%, to near 7,160. However, Nasdaq 100 futures advance 0.17%, to near 27,370.
Deutsche Bank economists expect the Bank of England (BoE) to keep rates at 3.75%, stressing two-sided risks as growth forecasts are cut and inflation projections raised.
Rabobank’s Senior Macro Strategist Bas van Geffen notes the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) left the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75%, with internal dissent over easing bias. He still projects two rate cuts under an incoming Chair Warsh but stresses risks are skewed toward fewer cuts.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), futures on NYMEX, gives up its early gains after posting a fresh over seven-week high at around $107.35 and flattens to near $104.85 during the European trading session on Thursday.
Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Thursday that they are moving closer to taking a decisive action in the foreign exchange markets, as reported by Reuters.
OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong report that Silver has extended its pullback toward USD71/oz after a failed break above USD80 in mid-April, with higher Brent, hawkish rate repricing and a firmer US Dollar (USD) weighing on non-yielding metals.
German preliminary Q1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rises at a steady pace of 0.3%, beats the estimates of 0.2%, according to the Federal Statistics Office of Germany. On an annualized basis, the German GDP growth arrives at 0.3%, as expected, slower than the previous reading of 0.4%.
The US Dollar (USD) appreciates against the Japanese Yen (JPY) for the third consecutive day on Thursday, to hit 21-month highs at 160.73, levels that urged Japanese authorities to act in the past, since the 160.00 round mark is considered a line in the sand for Tokyo.
BNY’s Geoff Yu expects a challenging near-term backdrop for Norwegian Krone (NOK) despite solid Norwegian fundamentals and potential Norges Bank tightening.
Here is what you need to know on Thursday, April 30:
Gold (XAU/USD) recovers further from the monthly low, touched the previous day, and climbs back closer to the $4,600 mark during the early European session on Thursday.
ING analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey report Copper trading near recent highs, supported by pre-holiday restocking in China ahead of Labour Day.
The EUR/GBP cross declines to near 0.8660 during the early European trading hours on Thursday. The Euro (EUR) weakens against the Pound Sterling (GBP) following the downbeat German Retail Sales data.
The Euro (EUR) extends losses for the third consecutive day against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, trading at 1.1663 at the time of writing, down from weekly highs at 1.1755.
MUFG’s Lloyd Chan notes that Brent Oil near US$120 and higher US Treasury yields are underpinning Dollar strength, with the Dollar holding in the 98.00–99.00 range.
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