The EUR/USD pair posts modest gains around 1.1635 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. Nonetheless, the potential upside might be limited, as Iran announced a halt to US negotiations and a full closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which could prompt risk-off sentiment.
US President Donald Trump said that he will have an agreement with Iran to extend the ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz "over the next week,” ABC News reported on Monday.
HSBC Asset Management reports that emerging market equities have been resilient in 2026, with a notable divergence between Chinese onshore and offshore markets.
Gold price (XAU/USD) declines to around $4,485 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. The precious metal loses ground as renewed tensions in the Middle East continue to fuel concerns over inflation and expectations of elevated interest rates.
The Australian Dollar loses traction and edges down 0.30% on Monday as risk appetite soured due to Iran halting negotiations with the US, as Israel intensified attacks in Lebanon.
Volkmar Baur at Commerzbank argues that market concerns over Japan’s fiscal stance are exaggerated, even after a new 3.1 trillion JPY supplementary budget funded largely by debt.
ING’s Frantisek Taborsky expects Central and Eastern European FX to start the month cautiously despite improving sentiment and busy local data.
Pound Sterling has the rare luxury, or curse, of a completely blank week. There is no first-tier United Kingdom data on the docket, no Bank of England (BoE) event, nothing for the Pound to trade on its own merits.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is in an odd spot: it has one of the few central banks in the developed world openly leaning toward higher rates, yet it still spent Monday on the back foot, down close to 1% on the day. That tells you most of what you need to know about whose week this is.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) keeps doing the one thing Tokyo least wants: drifting weaker into the zone where intervention becomes a live question. USD/JPY firmed back above 159.50 and pressed toward the 160.00 handle on Monday, the same threshold that triggered official Yen-buying at the end of April.
BNP Paribas reports that Chinese GDP growth accelerated to 5.0% year-on-year in Q1 2026 from 4.5% in Q4 2025, but is expected to slow moderately over the year. The bank highlights a K-shaped trajectory, with dynamic exports but sluggish domestic demand and ongoing property sector stress.
The USD/CHF pair forms a ‘bullish piercing’ chart pattern on Monday, which confirms further upside, but it faces key resistance at the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.7868. At the time of writing, the pair is trading with a 0.70% gain, around 0.7860.
HSBC Asset Management observes that 2026 has brought sharp swings in rate expectations for the Bank of England and European Central Bank, with markets moving from cuts to hikes as Oil-linked inflation risks rise.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) rises toward the 99.20 region on Monday after stronger-than-expected US manufacturing data reinforced confidence in the resilience of the United States (US) economy.
Crude Oil spent all of May bleeding out a war premium on the assumption that a US-Iran deal was a formality, and on Monday the market got a blunt reminder that nobody actually signed anything.
Commerzbank’s Thu Lan Nguyen discusses the renewed popularity of FX carry trades as hopes grow for an end to the Middle East war. She stresses that long-run returns are not driven by interest differentials alone and warns that theory argues against persistent excess returns.
Silver (XAG/USD) price consolidates near $75.00 on Monday, down 0.36% as sellers cap the white metal's advance around the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $75.98, with the key resistance level ahead of the precious metal reaching the 100-day SMA at $81.00.
Gold price retreats by more than 1% on Monday as the market mood shifts to neutral amid developments in the Middle East that threaten to end the ceasefire between the US and Iran. The XAU/USD trades at $4,490 after reaching a daily high of $4,546.
BNY’s Bob Savage highlights China as the only emerging market currently seeing net buying across equities, bonds and currency, even as domestic data remain mixed.
HSBC Asset Management notes that political uncertainty and higher Oil prices have added volatility to Turkish assets and pressured reserves. Yet the MSCI Türkiye Index has held up, supported by healthy reserves and a managed Lira float.
Societe Generale analysts highlight that Brazil’s 1Q Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rebounded to 1.1% qoq, supported by fiscal stimulus and mining, but at the cost of higher inflation and a worsening deficit.
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) trades on the back foot against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday as renewed tensions in the Middle East lift the Greenback. At the time of writing, USD/CAD trades around 1.3834, up nearly 0.27% on the day.
United States (US) President Donald Trump stated on Monday that he is unconcerned about the future of negotiations with Iran, saying, "I don't care if negotiations with Iran are over," during an interview with CNBC. Trump also claimed that talks are continuing, at a rapid pace, with the Islamic Rep
The AUD/USD pair trades near the 0.7160 region on Monday as the United States Dollar (USD) strengthens following upbeat manufacturing data, while renewed geopolitical tensions and cautious market sentiment weigh on the Australian Dollar (AUD).
Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad expects the National Bank of Poland (NBP) to keep its policy rate at 3.75% and sees its easing cycle as effectively over.
BNP Paribas sees Japan’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth slowing to 0.5% in 2026 from 1.1% in 2025 as the energy shock weighs on activity. Inflation is expected to stay above the 2% target through at least 2028.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded around 0.4% lower Monday, shedding roughly 200 points to sit near 50,800 after pulling back from the record-area highs above 51,100 set last week.
Gold (XAU/USD) kicks off the week with a negative bias as slow progress toward a US-Iran ceasefire extension deal and fresh attacks in the Middle East keep buyers cautious.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) steadies on Monday agains the US Dollar (USD) as speculation of a peace deal between the US and Iran fades, following weekend exchanges of fire that are a headwind for GBP/USD, which trades near 1.3445 at the time of writing.
NZD/USD trades around 0.5930 at the time of writing on Monday, down 1.00% on the day, as the US Dollar (USD) benefits from renewed safe-haven demand amid a risk-off market environment.
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