Gold (XAU/USD) is consolidating losses on Monday after coming under heavy selling pressure at the start of the week as markets digest shifting macro and geopolitical drivers.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil gained about 5% on Monday, but the headline figure disguised a wild session.
National Bank of Canada (NBC) economists Alexandra Ducharme and Jocelyn Paquet expect Canada’s February Labour Force Survey to show a 10K employment gain after January’s decline, but projects the unemployment rate rising to 6.7% as participation ticks up to 65.2%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) opened sharply lower on Monday as a weekend escalation in the US-Iran conflict sent crude Oil prices surging past $100 per barrel.
EUR/USD regains ground on Monday after opening the week with a bearish gap. The recovery comes as the US Dollar (USD) gives up earlier gains, allowing the Euro (EUR) to rebound from its lowest level in more than three months.
The British Pound (GBP) losses some ground versus the US Dollar (USD) on Monday as risk aversion keeps the Greenback bid, sponsored by the escalation of the Iran conflict.
AUD/USD advances on Monday, trading around 0.7040 at the time of writing, up 0.24% on the day. The pair benefits from renewed demand for the Australian Dollar (AUD) as stronger-than-expected economic data from China provides support to currencies closely linked to Chinese growth.
Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret highlight that the Euro is weaker versus the Dollar despite a more supportive rate outlook as markets focus on geopolitical risks.
TD Securities strategists Oscar Munoz and Eli Nir argue that the Federal Reserve will stay on hold near term as the Iran conflict and mixed US labor data keep uncertainty elevated.
BNP Paribas Economic Research Team projects Euro appreciation versus the Dollar, supported by structural changes in US fiscal policy and an expected strengthening of growth in Europe.
MUFG strategists Derek Halpenny, Lee Hardman and Abdul-Ahad Lockhart note that the Japanese Yen has not yet benefited from the latest volatility spike, with the BoJ’s trade‑weighted JPY index near year‑to‑date lows.
GBP/JPY extends gains on Monday, rising for a third consecutive day as traders reassess the monetary policy outlook for the Bank of England (BoE) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) amid soaring Oil prices driven by the escalating US-Iran war, which is reviving global inflation concerns.
HSBC Asset Management discusses how recent geopolitical tensions have driven Oil higher and raised market volatility.
EUR/JPY trades around 183.20 on Monday, up 0.35% on the day at the time of writing, as the Japanese Yen (JPY) weakens against the Euro (EUR).
TD Securities analysts argue that ongoing Iran‑related tensions and an Oil price spike are restoring the US Dollar’s safe‑haven behavior.
MUFG’s Senior Currency Analyst Lee Hardman highlights that February nonfarm payrolls fell by 92k, reversing January’s gains and underscoring a still-weak underlying US labour trend.
ING’s Chris Turner notes that USD/JPY is back in Japan’s FX intervention zone as global shocks and Oil prices surge. He sees coordinated US–Japan action as unlikely but warns that any such move could knock USD/JPY down by several big figures.
Commerzbank’s Senior Economist Dr. Ralph Solveen notes that German industry remains weak, with January industrial orders dropping sharply after earlier distortions from big ticket defense and public-sector contracts.
Societe Generale’s Kenneth Broux highlights that soaring energy prices and Dutch gas strength are weighing on Euro sentiment, keeping EUR/USD under pressure. The bank notes that rate differentials are not driving the pair, with the focus instead on growth risks from higher Oil and gas.
The USD/INR pair looks all set for its lifetime highest closing at around 92.80 on Monday. The pair trades strongly higher as the Indian Rupee (INR) faces intense selling pressure amid war in the Middle East involving the United States (US), Iran, and Israel, which has spiked oil prices.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Oil surges on Monday, trading around $100.70 per barrel at the time of writing, up 13.70% on the day after briefly jumping above $110 during the Asian session, its highest level since mid-2022.
DBS Group Research economist Philip Wee argues that the US Dollar’s traditional safe-haven role is being undermined as it failed to benefit from risk aversion despite higher Oil prices and geopolitical tensions.
Silver price (XAG/USD) claws back a majority of its early losses and recovers to near its opening price around $84.00 during the European trading session on Monday.
United Kingdom (UK) Prime Minister (PM) Keir Starmer said during European trading hours on Monday that the administration is in continuous talks with international partners about what more we can do to reduce the economic impact amid the ongoing war in the Middle East between the United States (US),
Deutsche Bank's Chief UK Economist Sanjay Raja outlines how the Bank of England and UK Government might respond to different energy-shock paths.
Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Index arrives at -3.1 in March from 4.2 in February.
Rabobank strategists Molly Schwartz and Jane Foley report that EUR net long positions have declined for a third consecutive week, driven by increased shorts.
Silver prices (XAG/USD) broadly unchanged on Monday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $83.83 per troy ounce, broadly unchanged 0.08% from the $83.89 it cost on Friday.
National Bank of Canada (NBC) economists Alexandra Ducharme and Jocelyn Paquet interpret recent Bank of Canada communication as favouring policy flexibility in response to supply shocks.
MUFG’s Senior Currency Analyst Lee Hardman notes that the surge in Oil prices linked to the Middle East conflict is reinforcing US Dollar strength, especially versus high-yielding emerging market currencies.
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