ING economists Deepali Bhargava and Lynn Song flag renewed policy uncertainty for the Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) after the surprise resignation of Bank Indonesia’s (BI) governor, just as sentiment toward Indonesian assets was improving.
Societe Generale strategist Kiyong Seong turns tactically constructive on USD/KRW, arguing that recent Won strength has been driven by late-stage flow factors rather than fundamentals.
Scotiabank’s team notes the Pound is fractionally weaker versus the Dollar, with fundamentals less supportive as yield spreads soften. However, sentiment is improving as markets fade earlier political concerns following PM Burnham’s arrival and stronger-than-expected construction PMI.
The Bank of Mexico (Banxico) held rates unchanged at 6.50% for the third consecutive meeting on Thursday in a unanimous decision, as expected by most analysts, after ending its easing cycle in May.
The USD/JPY advances by some 0.41%, clearing the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 158.06, as the Greenback recovers some ground following two days of intervention in the FX markets by US and Japanese authorities.
UOB’s economists highlight that Thailand’s inflation outlook is shaped by supply-side factors and external variables such as Oil and USD/THB.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil rebounds on Thursday as traders react to details of the proposed Iran-Oman agreement on the Strait of Hormuz. At the time of writing, WTI trades around $76.50 per barrel, up nearly 2.80% on the day.
US Treasury yields climb along the curve on Thursday as media reports that the Iran-Oman deal would ban US and Israeli ships from entering the Strait of Hormuz drive crude prices higher, while traders await the latest employment report.
AUD/USD is down 0.36% for the day, but still above the 0.7000 region, giving back Wednesday's gains as the US Dollar (USD) firms across the board. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is up 0.28% near the 100.00 psychological level.
The USD/CHF pair snaps two days of losses and rises by over 0.60% on Thursday after solid US jobs data. Also, buyers stepped in at key support at the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of 0.8052, pushing the pair back above the 0.8100 threshold.
Iranian Fars News agency revealed on Thursday details of a plan being negotiated by Iran and Oman to manage the Strait of Hormuz, under which ships belonging to the US, Israel and other “hostile” countries would be prohibited from transiting the waterway.
Silver (XAG/USD) trades lower at around $60.95 on Thursday at the time of press, down 1.73% on the day. The precious metal is facing profit-taking as the US Dollar (USD) regains momentum, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) advancing about 0.30% to trade near the psychological 100.00 level.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) holds firm against the US Dollar (USD) during the North American session on Thursday, after US jobs data reinforces the thesis that the labor market remains solid ahead of Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report.
Standard Chartered economists Hunter Chan and Shuang Ding highlight that China’s urban surveyed unemployment rate has remained in a 5.0-5.4% range over the past three years, yet broader labour underutilisation has risen.
USD/CAD rebounds on Thursday after briefly slipping below the key 1.4000 support level, as the US Dollar (USD) snaps a two-day losing streak with traders repositioning ahead of Friday's employment reports from the United States (US) and Canada.
Gold (XAU/USD) extends Wednesday's 4% spike on Thursday, trading around $4,260 and holding near a seven-week high as a softer US Dollar (USD) and retreating Treasury yields reinforce the metal's recovery. What distinguishes Thursday's session is that Gold is climbing alongside Crude Oil rather than
Scotiabank highlights that the Euro is slightly softer versus the Dollar after touching levels last seen in mid-June, with fundamentals still supportive as yield spreads turn. Spot has nearly converged with their fair value based on the 2-year Germany–US spread.
USD/JPY trades modestly higher near 158.20 on Thursday, extending a fourth session of Japanese Yen (JPY) softness as the pair claws back ground lost to last week's coordinated Japan-United States (US) intervention.
The Indian Rupee (INR) has found local support against the US Dollar (USD), with USD/INR easing to around 95.10 following the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) decision to hold its benchmark repo rate steady at 5.25% for a fourth consecutive meeting.
ING economists Deepali Bhargava and Lynn Song note that the Indian Rupee (INR) has given back much of its June gains as US–Iran tensions and rising Oil prices hurt sentiment.
Gold (XAU/USD) has staged a dramatic rebound, surging over 4% on Wednesday to move within striking distance of the $4,300/oz threshold.
Rabobank’s Stefan Koopman analyses United Kingdom demand prospects under Prime Minister Burnham’s shift from “securonomics” to “vibonomics”. The report argues that elevated household saving and weak confidence leave scope for a temporary consumption boost if sentiment improves.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) is balancing solid long-term fiscal fundamentals against near-term growth headwinds and shifting central bank expectations.
EUR/USD trades on the back foot on Thursday, snapping a two-day winning streak as the US Dollar (USD) steadies. Still, the near-term technical picture remains bullish following the late-July rebound from below 1.1400. At the time of writing, the pair trades around 1.1534, down 0.15% on the day.
Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note the Canadian Dollar (CAD) is effectively flat versus the US Dollar (USD) but modestly outperforming other majors, trading close to their fair value estimate around 1.40.
ING analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey report Copper prices trading above $14,000/t on the LME and near record levels on Comex, driven by metal diversion into the US ahead of potential tariff decisions.
NZD/USD trades around 0.5880 on Thursday at the time of writing, down 0.10% on the day. The pair remains under pressure as renewed demand for the US Dollar (USD) emerges, with investors seeking safe-haven assets amid fresh geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
BNY’s Geoff Yu notes Oil prices have stabilized near $80 as markets digest Iran’s proposed shipping route with Oman through the Strait of Hormuz. The temporary arrangement has reduced perceived disruption risk for Brent and WTI, helped by larger U.S. inventories.
AUD/USD edges lower on Thursday as the US Dollar (USD) steadies following two consecutive days of losses. At the time of writing, the pair trades around 0.7036, down roughly 0.32% on the day.
Gold (XAU/USD) consolidates gains on Thursday after briefly climbing above $4,300 as the US Dollar (USD) steadies while traders await confirmation of a possible Iran-Oman agreement on the Strait of Hormuz. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades around $4,269, up 0.52% on the day.
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