European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde may step down from her job earlier than her planned retirement in October 2027, according to a report by the Financial Times.
ING’s Frantisek Taborsky notes the Hungarian Forint is testing new highs as EUR/HUF trades near two-year lows ahead of expected NBH rate cuts.
The Minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) January 27–28 meeting showed that almost all participants favoured holding rates steady, with only a couple preferring a cut. The pause, however, did not close the door on easing.
Standard Chartered’s Madhur Jha and Ethan Lester highlight that around 80% of global trade moves via sea routes, with Asia, and particularly China, increasingly dominant in port rankings and liner shipping connectivity.
Silver (XAG/USD) trades with a positive tone on Wednesday, snapping a two-day losing streak as dip buyers step in to cushion the downside. At the time of writing, XAG/USD is hovering around $77.50, up over 5.5% on the day.
BNY’s EMEA Macro Strategist Geoff Yu notes that FX risk appetite and carry trades have stayed resilient despite weaker global equities, with investors adding to overheld high-yielders such as MXN, BRL and PLN, and some low-yielding Asia-Pacific currencies.
Rabobank analysts highlight new US-linked investment projects under Japan’s large trade framework, including LNG and Oil infrastructure, as evidence Washington can steer partner capital into US real assets rather than just stocks or bonds.
Gold bounces sharply on Wednesday after falling more than 2% in the previous session, as traders position ahead of the FOMC Minutes later in the day.
AUD/USD declines and trades around 0.7060 on Wednesday at the time of writing, down 0.25% on the day, as investors remain cautious ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes due later in the day and Australia’s employment data scheduled for Thursday.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) weakens against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday, with USD/JPY climbing nearly 0.78% as renewed demand for the Greenback underpins the pair. At the time of writing, USD/JPY is trading around 154.48.
Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose notes Polish forwards have scaled back expected easing to under 25 bps over 3–6 months, even as dovish inflation data and MPC rhetoric point to a March cut.
Oil prices whipsawed this week as the second round of US-Iran nuclear negotiations in Geneva dominated sentiment.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) climbed around 300 points, or about 0.65%, on Wednesday as dip buyers continued stepping back into equities for a third consecutive session this week following last week's sharp AI-driven selloff.
UK inflation data released Wednesday confirmed the disinflationary trend the Bank of England (BoE) has been watching for, with headline CPI dropping to 3% and the Retail Price Index falling to 3.8% from 4.2%.
ING economists Peter Virovacz and Frantisek Taborsky expect the National Bank of Hungary (NBH) to start an easing cycle at its 24 February meeting, cutting the base rate by 25bp to 6.25%.
Rabobank’s Senior US Strategist Philip Marey expects the FOMC to deliver three 25 bps cuts in 2026, but now sees the easing cycle starting in June rather than March. Stronger US labor market data have reduced the urgency for near-term easing, while softer CPI inflation supports cuts later in 2026.
USD/CHF trades around 0.7717 on Wednesday at the time of writing, up 0.20% on the day.
EUR/USD remains on the back foot on Wednesday as second-tier US economic data provided modest support to the US Dollar (USD).
BNY’s Head of Markets Macro Strategy Bob Savage highlights that Australia’s Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Index slowed sharply, suggesting stalled momentum even as commodity prices support the Australian Dollar.
Nomura Research Analysts Dominic Bunning and Yusuke Miyairi argue that UK wage and inflation data still point to further monetary policy convergence with the Euro area, while rising UK political risks are seen as under-priced and supportive of Euro outperformance versus Pound.
TD Securities analysts note that Canadian January CPI surprised slightly to the downside at 2.3% year-on-year, with core measures also easing. They argue the Bank of Canada is unlikely to overreact but say softer core momentum reduces the bar for policy response to future growth headwinds.
Gold (XAU/USD) trades firmer on Wednesday after sliding to its lowest level in nearly two weeks at $4,842 the previous day, as dip buyers stepped in to limit the downside and keep the pullback relatively shallow. At the time of writing, XAU/USD is trading around $4,952, up nearly 1.50% on the day.
Durable Goods in the US dropped to $319.6 billion, or 1.4%, in December, the US Census Bureau reported on Wednesday. This print followed the 5.4% increase recorded in the previous month and surpassed market expectations for a 2.0% contraction.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback's value against a basket of six major currencies, holds steady on Wednesday as traders position ahead of key US economic releases. At the time of writing, the index trades near 97.29, up roughly 0.20% on the day.
Rabobank argues that the European Commission’s forthcoming push for a Savings and Investment Union and capital markets union, alongside Sweden’s possible reconsideration of EMU membership, are structurally supportive for the Euro.
Societe Generale’s Kit Juckes argues that Dollar shorts are crowded and struggling to gain traction despite a US Administration preference for a weaker Dollar and lower interest rates. He notes DXY recently broke below key moving averages, but says only a modest rebound would reverse that.
BNY’s Head of Markets Macro Strategy Bob Savage reports Japan’s exports posted their biggest rise since 2022, yet the Japanese Yen barely reacted, with USD/JPY slightly lower.
EUR/GBP trades on the back foot on Wednesday as the Euro (EUR) comes under pressure following media reports that Christine Lagarde may step down as head of the European Central Bank (ECB) before her term ends in October 2027.
TD Securities analysts note the recent US curve flattening as investors took profit after a rally in rates, with Fed officials emphasising a cautious, wait-and-see stance on inflation and policy.
The Euro (EUR) remains on its back foot against the US Dollar (USD) this week.
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