UOB’s Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann describe USD/CNH as consolidating after a move to 6.7200, with momentum slowing in the very near term.
US Treasury yields turned mixed on Friday as the long-end of the curve, the 20s and 30s, posted gains while the short-end and the belly of the yield curve retreated from multi-year high levels. The US 10-year Treasury yield holds firm at 5.20% after peaking at a 19-year high of 5.228%.
ING’s Asia-Pacific research notes that South Korea’s upcoming data should show stronger industrial production and a widening trade surplus, even as export and import growth moderates. Technology and semiconductor exports are expected to underpin the surplus.
Societe Generale describes a limited impact from President Xi’s US visit, with no new tariff cuts or AI dialogue mechanism agreed as the trade truce was only extended to January.
Cleveland Federal Reserve (Fed) President Beth Hammack said on Friday the two sides of the Fed's dual mandate are not in conflict. She said that “high inflation complicates economic planning,” and that she doesn’t see current policy as restraining the economy.
UOB’s Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note USD/SGD held steady around 1.2800 after Wednesday’s surge, with the Singapore Dollar (SGD) supported by expectations of further MAS tightening.
European Central Bank (ECB) Vice President Boris Vujcic said on Friday that the ECB started a tightening cycle and sees a “risk of higher for longer energy prices." He added that diesel prices will stay high for a long time, feeding into inflation.
OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong report that Asian FX traded broadly softer as higher Oil prices and rising US Treasury yields hurt risk sentiment, with Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) underperforming and Philippine Peso (PHP), Indian Rupee (INR) and Thai Baht (THB) also weaker.
The Cleveland Federal Reserve (Fed) President Beth Hammack said on Friday that “the biggest risk with inflation is the formation of an inflationary mindset”, in a panel discussion hosted by the Cleveland Fed, with Vujcic, the Vice President of the European Central Bank (ECB), and Bank of Mexico's (B
Silver (XAG/USD) holds firm on Friday, supported by a modest pullback in the US Dollar (USD) after its strong weekly rally. At the time of writing, Silver trades around $64.30 but remains on track for a weekly loss.
Gold (XAU/USD) price holds firm on Friday after two days of losses, as US bond yields remain high and inflationary concerns mount, increasing the likelihood of further tightening by the Federal Reserve (Fed) and other major central banks.
USD/CHF holds firm on Friday even as the US Dollar (USD) pulls back slightly after a strong weekly rally. The move has done little to lift the Swiss franc (CHF), with the pair hovering around 0.8285, near levels last seen in May 2025. USD/CHF is on track for a fourth consecutive weekly gain.
UOB’s Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note that USD/CHF has surged over the past two days, with strong momentum pointing to further Dollar strength. However, they stress that deeply overbought conditions are likely to cap upside to the 0.8305–0.8330 area.
NZD/USD trades around 0.5665 on Friday at the time of writing, virtually unchanged on the day, as the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) struggles to capitalize on a moderate decline in the US Dollar (USD).
Iran has offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days of Washington accepting its terms, and buyers have taken the Dow Jones Industrial Average higher before Washington has replied. The index trades near 51,800 on Friday and is on track to end a three-session losing run.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) trims some of its weekly losses, gaining over 0.18% against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday as the Greenback takes a breather, even as US Treasury yields continue to rise.
Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note that the Canadian Dollar (CAD) is flat versus the US Dollar (USD) and lagging most G10 peers. They highlight that wider US–Canada yield spreads have weighed on the CAD, but see the move as stretched.
Societe Generale’s Morning Briefing reports EUR/USD traded between 1.1359 and 1.1387 overnight and is on course for a second weekly drop. The defence of the 100‑week moving average at 1.1356 and oversold technicals suggest the correction may have run its course for now.
EUR/USD edges higher on Friday as the US Dollar (USD) pauses after a strong weekly rally, allowing the Euro (EUR) to recover some ground. However, the pair remains on track for a third consecutive weekly decline.
ING economists Deepali Bhargava and Lynn Song expect the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to raise rates by 25bp, citing a still-hot economy, tight labour market conditions and upside surprises in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and inflation.
OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong highlight that resilient US data, sticky inflation and elevated energy prices are pushing US Treasury yields higher and supporting the US Dollar.
AUD/USD edges higher on Friday, trading around 0.7025 at the time of writing, up 0.20% on the day.
Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad reports that Banxico left its policy rate at 6.50% for a third consecutive meeting and removed prior guidance to keep it fixed, while stressing it does not need to match expected Federal Reserve hikes.
UOB’s Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note USD/JPY has risen for five straight sessions to 158.83, with momentum still positive but indicators deeply overbought.
Commerzbank’s Thu Lan Nguyen notes that the Fed’s unanimous September rate hike has temporarily restored its credibility and supported the Dollar, prompting a lower EUR/USD year-end forecast to 1.15 from 1.17.
USD/CAD trades little changed on Friday as the US Dollar (USD) pulls back slightly after a strong rally this week. The pause in the Greenback and Treasury yields has offered little relief to the Canadian Dollar (CAD), leaving it on track for a third consecutive weekly decline.
Societe Generale reports USD/INR has repeatedly tested 96.00 but failed to break higher as the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) maintained a visible presence in the FX market through interventions.
ING strategists Francesco Pesole and Frantisek Taborsky note that rising back-end yields and risk-off sentiment are helping consolidate recent Dollar gains, even if they look stretched versus short-term fundamentals.
Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad highlights that political comments from US and Japanese leaders helped push USD/JPY back below its 200-day moving average.
Gold (XAU/USD) reverses earlier intraday gains on Friday, failing to capitalize on a modest pullback in the US Dollar as growing expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may raise interest rates again weigh on the non-yielding metal.
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