Gold (XAU/USD) consolidates on Friday as traders await further developments on a potential US-Iran peace deal. At the time of writing, XAU/USD is trading around $4,200 after climbing to an intraday high of $4,246 earlier in the day.
Silver (XAG/USD) trades around $67.50 on Friday at the time of writing, up 0.21% on the day. The white metal maintains a positive bias despite improving market sentiment driven by diplomatic progress between the United States (US) and Iran.
A Reuters poll found that the Bank of England is projected to keep the Bank Rate at 3.75% at the June 18 meeting, based on a survey of 65 economists.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) turns negative against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday after UK data showed the economy contracted in April, while rising prospects of an agreement between the US and Iran improved risk appetite.
United States Vice President JD Vance said on Friday that Iran would not receive cash or released funds simply for signing a potential agreement, pushing back against what he described as false information surrounding a possible deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end Iran’s nuclear weapons prog
Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note that the British Pound (GBP) is consolidating recent gains around 1.3400, with domestic risk elevated ahead of next week’s CPI, labour data and the Bank of England decision.
EUR/GBP holds firm on Friday, with the Euro (EUR) modestly outperforming the British Pound (GBP) as weak UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data reinforced signs of a slowing economy. At the time of writing, the cross trades around 0.8633, up from an intraday low of 0.8625.
ING’s Frantisek Taborsky notes that headlines on a possible end to the US-Iran conflict triggered a risk-on move, helping Central and Eastern European currencies erase recent losses.
Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret observe that the Canadian Dollar (CAD) is weighed down by weaker Oil prices linked to Iran peace hopes, even as improved risk appetite offers some support.
NZD/USD trades around 0.5830 on Friday at the time of writing, down 0.15% on the day as the US Dollar (USD) maintains a firm tone following a series of strong US economic releases.
Nomura’s European Economics team, led by Andrzej Szczepaniak and colleagues, notes that the ECB delivered a 25bp hike to a 2.25% depo rate and unveiled more hawkish forecasts.
TD Securities economists expect the Bank of England (BoE) to keep Bank Rate at 3.75% with a 7-2 vote as Greene joins Pill in calling for a hike. They highlight persistent inflation pressures, upside risks from energy and airfare, and softer demand.
Consumer confidence in the United States (US) improved slightly in June, with the University of Michigan's (UoM) Consumer Sentiment Index rising to 48.9 in the flash estimate from 44.8 in May. This print came in better than the market expectation of 46.
Brown Brothers Harriman’s Elias Haddad says GBP/USD has given back part of its US-Iran-related gains and is expected to fall to 1.3100 as United States (US) growth outpaces the United Kingdom (UK).
National Bank of Canada (NBC) strategists assess how Kevin Warsh may reshape Federal Reserve (Fed) policy.
ING’s Chris Turner notes that a potential US-Iran peace deal has softened the Dollar, but DXY is still holding firm. He highlights that energy supply losses and inflation risks persist unless Oil flows freely through the Strait of Hormuz.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) pares some part of earlier losses on Friday as markets seek confirmation of a possible US-Iran agreement, prompting traders to refrain from placing aggressive bearish bets.
Commerzbank analysts Charlie Lay and Moses Lim argue that the Rupee remains vulnerable to external shocks, notably Middle East tensions, higher energy costs and El Nino-related risks.
TD Securities strategists note that Precious Metals, particularly Gold, are struggling to gain traction as elevated Fed hike probabilities keep real rates high. CTA's (Commodity Trading Advisors) are running a small net short and scenario analysis points to a relatively tight trading band.
USD/CAD trades higher around 1.3990 on Friday, with the US Dollar (USD) benefiting from stronger-than-expected inflation data in the United States (US), while the Canadian Dollar (CAD) remains weighed down by falling Oil prices and a Bank of Canada (BoC) that is showing little urgency to raise rates
Nordea’s Jan von Gerich highlights that the ECB delivered a widely expected 25bp hike and is likely to continue tightening, with the next move expected in July. He argues that broadening inflation pressures mean lower energy prices alone will not ease ECB concerns.
ING’s Commodities Strategist Ewa Manthey notes that LME copper is trading near record highs, supported by supply tightness, US tariff-driven stockpiling and AI-related power demand. The market is already pricing US tariff risk, with the COMEX-LME spread around $400/t.
Societe Generale strategists note Mexico still appears steady even as conditions become more challenging. Inflation has cooled to 3.94% in May, while Banxico has signalled an end to its easing cycle, leading markets to price potential hikes.
Commerzbank’s Bernd Weidensteiner and Christoph Balz argue that Kevin Warsh’s first Federal Reserve meeting is unlikely to deliver an immediate rate cut, given elevated PCE inflation and a still‑solid labor market.
Nomura’s Global FX Strategy team, including Dominic Bunning and Yusuke Miyairi, argues that a more hawkish ECB path versus the Bank of England should support the Euro against the Pound.
The Euro (EUR) has given away previous daily gains against the US Dollar (USD) and is trading practically flat, at 1.1575 at the time of writing.
MUFG analysts Lin Li, Michael Wan, Lloyd Chan and Khang Sek Lee argue that firmer US inflation and resilient labour markets underpin a higher-for-longer global rates backdrop, supporting the US Dollar.
Brown Brothers Harriman’s Elias Haddad reports that EUR/USD briefly dipped toward 1.1500 after the ECB decision before rebounding on the US-Iran breakthrough. Haddad expects EUR/USD to edge lower and stabilize closer to 1.1400 as US growth outperforms the Eurozone.
The Indian Rupee (INR) rises sharply higher higher against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday. The USD/INR pair tumbles to near 95.12 on reports that the United States (US) and Iran will sign a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) in Geneva on Sunday, resulting in a significant decline in oil prices.
The British Pound (GBP) maintains a moderately positive tone against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, as investors’ optimism about a US-Iran peace deal has offset rather uninspiring UK data.
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