United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note that USD/SGD remains supported within the Monetary Authority of Singapore’s policy band, with SGD NEER likely between 1.50% and 1.80% above midpoint, implying a 1.279–1.283 range. Short-term price action shows limited upward momentum, with resistance near 1.2835 and revised strong support at 1.2775.
Commerzbank analysts note Taiwan’s September trade surplus hit a record USD23.6bn, with exports surging 60.9% year-on-year on strong AI-related demand. The Central Bank of the Republic of China may lean more hawkish if inflation’s uptrend persists.
After a call with Russian President Putin, President Donald Trump said on Friday Russia will immediately supply more than 300K tons of diesel to the US and global markets. He put the next shipments at 500K tons in November and 1 million tons after that.
DBS Group Research expects China’s exports to grow 25.7% year-on-year in September, supported by strong electronics demand and improving manufacturing PMIs.
Four sessions after its highest level since April 2025, the Dollar Index hasn't got back to it. The index trades near 102.25 and has made a lower high in each session since Wednesday.
On Friday, US President Donald Trump said he spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin, who agreed to immediately supply over 300K tons of diesel fuel to the US and the global market, add 500K tons for November, and deliver 1 million tons “immediately thereafter.”
Silver (XAG/USD) price rallies over 2.80% on Friday as buyers buy the dip at $59.17, pushing the white metal above $60.00 to hit a two-day high of $61.19. At the time of writing, XAG/USD trades at $60.86.
OCBC’s Christopher Wong notes that Singapore Dollar (SGD) has held relatively steady despite a firmer US Dollar (USD) and higher Oil prices, with MAS tightening expectations underpinning the S$NEER. USD/SGD trades near recent highs with intact bullish momentum.
Gold (XAU/USD) price advances more than 1.40% on Friday, capitaliszng on a dip in US Treasury yields and a softer Greenback, as recent US data suggests households are becoming pessimistic about the economy, while investors seem confident that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will stay pat on rates.
USD/JPY trades with a positive bias on Friday as the Japanese Yen (JPY) underperforms across the board following a sharp decline in Japanese government bond yields.
Halpenny highlights a new PBoC document defending China’s FX policy and rejecting claims that CNY drives its trade surplus, instead pointing to manufacturing competitiveness. He notes BIS REER data showing a 20% fall from the 2022 peak and IMF estimates of 12–20% undervaluation, suggesting CNY is undervalued but only partly explains China’s export strength.
MUFG’s Michael Wan highlights a mixed global backdrop for Asian currencies, with US Treasuries rallying and the US Dollar (USD) somewhat weaker, while tech stocks decline. He notes resilient Asia macro data, including strong Taiwan exports and South Korea’s current account.
DBS Group Research expects the Monetary Authority of Singapore to slightly increase the SGD NEER policy band slope at the October review, while keeping the width and centre unchanged. The team, led by Taimur Baig, anticipates calibrated tightening driven by import cost pressures and resilient growth, alongside strong Q3 2026 GDP supported by AI-led trade and financial sector strength.
Canada lost 68.3K jobs in September against a forecast for a 7K gain, and with August's 41.7K loss it has given back all of its net job gains for 2026.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) holds firm against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, which posts modest gains against a basket of six currencies, while US consumers grow pessimistic about the economy as the US-Iran conflict drags on for another week.
Rabobank's Senior Economist Maartje Wijffelaars assesses French budget negotiations starting next week in Parliament, noting protests and reluctance for austerity. She highlights Le Pen’s preference for a bad budget over none and possible use of Article 49.3.
EUR/USD reverses earlier gains on Friday and remains on track for a fifth consecutive weekly decline as the US Dollar (USD) rebounds from the previous day’s pullback. Concerns over France’s fiscal outlook also continue to weigh on sentiment toward the Euro (EUR).
NZD/USD trades around 0.5605 on Friday at the time of writing, posting a modest gain of 0.06% on the day, but more broadly continuing to consolidate near its recent lows.
Commerzbank's Volkmar Baur highlights Japanese investors' net selling of foreign bonds and its implications for global yields. Although Japanese investors have recently returned as buyers of French bonds, their selling of US bonds has provided some support to the euro against the dollar.
ING economists Adam Antoniak and David Havrlant expect Poland’s final September CPI, due Wednesday, to confirm headline inflation at 4% year-on-year, with core inflation easing and price growth concentrated in fuels and related services. They note improved short-term inflation prospects thanks to renewed cuts in fuel excise duty and VAT, and project headline CPI in a 3.5–4.0% range by year-end.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil trades little changed on Friday as traders weigh easing fears of an immediate US-Iran military escalation against persistent supply risks in the Strait of Hormuz. At the time of writing, WTI trades around $90.65 per barrel, up 0.10% on the day.
Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) economist Claire Fan notes Canada lost 68,000 jobs in September, mainly in public sectors, reversing much of summer gains and leaving year-to-date employment at -41,000. She highlights volatility in monthly data and stresses the unemployment rate remains below last year. Fan expects earlier labour market progress to hold and the unemployment rate to edge lower through 2026.
TD Securities’ Ryan McKay and Bart Melek highlight that CTAs (Commodity Trading Advisors) are covering Gold shorts, with positioning rising by around 7% of maximum historical size. They note renewed inflows into Chinese Gold ETFs after the holiday and continued global ETF demand.
DBS Group Research anticipates India’s September inflation to rise to 5.7% year-on-year from 4.8%, driven by broad-based food price gains and higher non-food fuel costs. Core inflation is expected to tick up as uneven monsoon conditions and elevated Oil prices add pressure, leading DBS to expect the RBI to keep the door open for a possible rate hike in December 2026.
Rabobank's Senior Economist Maartje Wijffelaars describes widening French spreads and notes 38% of French high-grade corporate debt now yields less than government bonds. She argues most spread widening may be over as France is seen as too big to fail and ECB tools exist. She outlines ECB conditionality for TPI and stresses France’s need for a credible budget.
USD/CAD climbs on Friday as the Canadian Dollar (CAD) weakens sharply following a disappointing domestic employment report. A firm US Dollar (USD) provides additional support to the pair. At the time of writing, USD/CAD trades around 1.4276, at levels last seen in April 2025.
TD Securities’ US economics team led by Oscar Munoz, with Eli Nir, Gennadiy Goldberg and Molly Brooks, expects September Core CPI to slow to 0.20% month-on-month, driven by softer core services and supercore.
Brown Brothers Harriman notes that the Norwegian Krone (NOK) is softer against most peers following a modest pullback in Oil prices, but September CPI data keep further Norges Bank rate hikes in play, offering support to NOK. Sticky underlying inflation above the central bank’s forecasts means the option to raise rates further remains open, with markets pricing roughly 50% odds of another hike by year-end.
Gold (XAU/USD) trades on the front foot on Friday but struggles to extend its advance as the US Dollar (USD) and US Treasury yields show signs of stabilisation following Thursday’s sharp pullback.
American consumer confidence declined in early October, as households grew more pessimistic about current conditions and the broader economic outlook, according to preliminary data from the University of Michigan.
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