USD/JPY trades around 162.30 on Monday at the time of writing, up 0.58% on the day, extending its rebound after last week's pullback.
The Pound Sterling steadies during the North American session, as the week begins in a risk-off mood, as evidenced by overall US Dollar strength in the FX markets, even though soft jobs data and trimmed hawkish Fed bets for the rest of the year.
Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note GBP/USD near 1.3338 is steady versus the US Dollar (USD) and outperforming on crosses despite weak construction Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data.
The Euro (EUR) trades on the back foot against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday as investors return after the extended US Independence Day weekend. At the time of writing, EUR/USD is trading around 1.1421, down 0.12% on the day.
European Central Bank (ECB) Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel said on Monday that the Eurozone is not back to a pre-war situation, even after the recent decline in Oil prices.
Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Christopher Waller said on Monday that forward guidance can strengthen the impact of monetary policy when used properly, but warned that it can also become problematic if it limits policymakers’ flexibility.
AUD/USD trades with a cautious tone, sideways near the 0.6930 level on Monday after Australian inflation data showed further easing price pressures, while mixed United States (US) services figures kept the US Dollar (USD) broadly supported but without strong momentum.
United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang indicates USD/CNH has seen a slight softening in momentum but remains confined to a narrow intraday band of 6.7800–6.7930. Over the next 1–3 weeks, the bank expects range trading between 6.7750 and 6.8080 as earlier Dollar strength has faded.
BNY’s Geoff Yu notes that crowded exposure to Latin American (LatAm) bonds is unwinding as higher U.S. yields drive a domestic repricing of real-rate risks. The bank sees flows rotating toward regional equities and maintains a constructive tactical view on Latin American carry.
Silver (XAG/USD) pauses a four-day winning streak on Monday as buyers take a breather following last week's 5.55% rally. A firmer US Dollar (USD) is also capping the precious metal's upside.
USD/CAD extends its advance for a second consecutive day and trades around 1.4230 at the time of writing on Monday, up 0.20% on the day.
Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note EUR/USD around 1.1418 trading softer against the US Dollar, though mid-pack within G10. Euro area Producer Price Index (PPI) and retail sales were in line with expectations, while German factory orders surprised higher.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) is confronting a notable shift in market momentum as fresh domestic data points to cooling inflation.
TD Securities projects US output growth to move sideways in 2026, slightly below trend, with Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at 2.0% Q4/Q4 and unemployment around 4.3%. The Iran conflict and an oil shock pose stagflationary risks, while AI and high-income consumers support demand.
Gold (XAU/USD) consolidates losses on Monday as a firmer US Dollar (USD) and mild profit-taking cap gains following last week's rebound from a more than seven-month low of $3,941.
Commerzbank’s Dr. Marco Wagner notes that German manufacturing orders rose 1.9% in May, or 1.0% excluding large orders, pointing to an upward trend. He argues this supports a moderate recovery in German industry and a slight recovery in the broader German economy after a likely small Q2 decline.
Economic activity in the US service sector lost some momentum in June, with the ISM Services PMI easing to 54.0 from 54.5 in the previous month, matching analysts' expectations.
Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret describe USD/CAD around 1.4215 as consolidating, with the Canadian Dollar retaining a soft undertone despite narrower US–Canada front-end spreads.
GBP/JPY edges higher on Monday, climbing to levels last seen in January 2008 as the Japanese Yen (JPY) remains under pressure across the board. The Yen resumed its decline after a brief pullback last week, with USD/JPY climbing back to its highest level in four decades.
Societe Generale analysts describe AUD/USD extending its pullback after breaking below the May trough around 0.7070 and retesting the 200-DMA near 0.6870/0.6830, aligned with March lows. They stress this zone as key support, noting November 2025’s correction also held there.
BNY’s Geoff Yu notes that OPEC+ has ratified another production quota increase, extending gradual supply normalization and adding pressure on Brent and WTI.
MUFG’s Lee Hardman highlights that EUR/USD is trading just above 1.1400, testing the bottom of its 1.1400–1.1800 range. The Euro has faced selling on weaker data and reduced ECB hike expectations, but recent indicators show resilience.
TD Securities’ Oscar Munoz and Eli Nir expect the Federal Reserve to keep the Fed funds rate on hold throughout 2026 as US growth moves sideways and inflation stays elevated.
ING’s Francesco Pesole expects the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to deliver a 25bp ‘insurance’ hike in July, taking the policy rate to 2.50%, despite the sharp drop in Oil prices.
Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose notes that June Turkish Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) data were better than expected as the energy shock faded, with headline CPI slowing to 32.1% year-on-year and PPI to 28.1%.
BNY’s Geoff Yu reports that Australia’s Melbourne Institute inflation gauge fell again in June, with both headline and trimmed mean measures easing.
Societe Generale strategists Kit Juckes and Olivier Korber argue that Dollar strength remains underpinned by robust US growth, sticky inflation and a favourable terms of trade shock versus Europe and Asia.
ING’s Chris Turner says EUR/USD is consolidating above 1.1400 as markets reassess European Central Bank (ECB) and Fed paths, with a September ECB hike priced below 50% probability.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) has resumed its broader downtrend against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday following a mild relief last week.
HSBC strategists argue that the USD/JPY pair is trading near its highest level in around 40 years and may have shifted into a new, higher range.
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