The market walked into Friday's payrolls report braced for weakness, and the US Dollar Index (DXY) made it pay. Consensus looked for a soft 85K of new jobs in May, the kind of number that fits a cooling labor market and a Federal Reserve (Fed) edging toward cuts.
UOB economists say Thailand’s May Consumer Price Index (CPI) eased slightly but stayed near the top of the Bank of Thailand's (BoT) target, with core inflation still subdued. They stress that price gains are driven by fuel, transport and prepared food rather than broad demand.
There is an old reflex in equity markets that never quite dies: when the economy looks too strong, stocks get nervous. Friday brought it straight back.
The USD/CAD pair rises and trades near the 1.3930 region on Friday as the US Dollar (USD) gains ground following a stronger-than-expected Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, offsetting support from an equally impressive Canadian employment release.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) weakens on Friday as the US Dollar (USD) outperforms its major peers following upbeat US labor market data. At the time of writing, USD/CHF is trading around 0.7955, climbing to a two-month high.
Deutsche Bank analysts underscore that stronger Japanese wage data and resilient household spending are reinforcing expectations for Bank of Japan (BoJ) tightening. Real and nominal wages are rising at the fastest pace since 2024, with futures pricing a high probability of a June hike.
BNY’s Bob Savage underscores renewed stress in parts of EM Asia, with Indonesia’s Rupiah weakening beyond 18,000 and Korean Won pressured despite a strong current account surplus.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) falls below the 1.3400 figure on Friday, registering losses of 0.37% against the US Dollar (USD) after the latest Nonfarm Payrolls report in the US crushed estimates, backing the narrative that the economy may be close to full employment.
Societe Generale analysts Kunal Kundu and Galvin Chia note that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) kept the repo rate at 5.25% with a neutral stance, while cutting FY27 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth to 6.6% and raising FY27 Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation to
Gold (XAU/USD) edges lower on Friday after the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report beat expectations, boosting the US Dollar (USD) and reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep interest rates higher for longer.
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack said on Friday that it remains reasonable to keep interest rates steady for now, but she warned that if recent economic trends continue, policymakers may soon need to take action to address persistently high inflation.
Silver (XAG/USD) falls on Friday and trades around $68.90 at the time of writing, down 6.74% on the day. The white metal is under heavy selling pressure after a stronger-than-expected US employment report boosted the US Dollar and reinforced expectations of a more restrictive Federal Reserve (Fed).
Rabobank argues that closer EU–UK ties under Prime Minister Starmer will proceed through targeted, technical agreements that only marginally improve the United Kingdom’s growth outlook.
Nomura analysts expects the European Central Bank's (ECB) June macroeconomic projections to incorporate higher market rate assumptions and exclude May Harmonised Indices of Consumer Prices (HICP) data.
Commerzbank’s Norman Liebke and Carsten Fritsch highlight that Brent and European gas have risen on renewed US–Iran tensions, but price reactions are more muted as inventories and rerouted flows ease tightness.
EUR/USD weakens on Friday as the US Dollar (USD) rallies following a stronger-than-expected US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. At the time of writing, the pair trades around 1.1559, slipping to two-month lows.
Kristian Nummelin at Nordea expects the European Central Bank to hike rates next week as elevated inflation and strong core momentum keep price pressures in focus. Markets are pricing a similar outcome.
TD Securities’ Global Strategy Team expects the ECB to raise the deposit rate to 2.25% in response to persistently high energy prices.
ING notes US natural gas futures have firmed on supportive storage data and recovering LNG export flows after maintenance.
AUD/USD trades around 0.7105 at the time of writing on Friday, down 0.39% on the day, as the US Dollar (USD) gains support following a stronger-than-expected US employment report.
Commerzbank’s Thu Lan Nguyen reports that US Aluminium supply remains tight more than a year after tariffs, with a planned Oklahoma smelter blocked on environmental and ownership grounds. Domestic production has actually fallen, while high prices and import premiums damp demand.
USD/JPY trades around 160.00 on Friday at the time of writing, virtually unchanged on the day after rebounding from its intraday lows following the release of the US employment report.
The Euro (EUR) slips against the British Pound (GBP) on Friday after a downward revision to Eurozone growth figures cast fresh doubt over the region's economic outlook. EUR/GBP trades around 0.8642 at the time of writing, pulling back after two days of gains.
Bob Savage at BNY notes that the Reserve Bank of India kept the repo rate at 5.25% and a neutral stance, while unveiling measures to support the Rupee and attract foreign capital.
Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) in the United States (US) rose by 172K in May, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on Friday. This print followed the 179K increase (revised from 115K) recorded in April and surpassed the market expectation of 85K by a wide margin.
Statistics Canada reported on Friday that the Unemployment Rate decreased to 6.6% in May, below what markets were expecting.
Nordea’s Kristian Nummelin notes that strong US data and higher energy prices have recently supported the Dollar, as payrolls, ISM indices and JOLTS all point to a resilient US economy.
Nomura’s Andrzej Szczepaniak and team expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to begin a recalibration phase at the 11 June meeting, with a 25bp hike in the depo rate to 2.25%.
ING analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey highlight that Oil is trading on expectations of resumed Persian Gulf flows, which they see as overly optimistic given stalled US-Iran talks.
The Euro (EUR) is going through a solid recovery against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, and trades at 1.1635 at the time of writing, after hitting session highs at 1.1644.
Exclusive insights, trading signals, and real-time updates for registered users.