For most of Thursday the Dow Jones Industrial Average looked heavy, sliding to a session low near 49,700 as firmer Oil and a stubborn rise in yields did the work a static Federal Reserve (Fed) would not. Then the headline hit.
USD/CAD trims part of its intraday gains on Thursday as traders react to fresh geopolitical headlines surrounding ongoing US-Iran negotiations. At the time of writing, the pair is trading around 1.3775, up nearly 0.20% on the day after hitting an intraday high near 1.3800 earlier in the day.
Crude spent most of Thursday doing what it has done all spring, rallying on the latest escalation headline, this time the claim that Iran would keep its enriched uranium at home. Then the wires flipped.
Commerzbank’s Dr. Vincent Stamer notes that the Euro area composite PMI fell further into contraction territory in May, suggesting a weak second quarter for the economy. Both manufacturing and services sentiment deteriorated, with services notably weaker.
Bank of Richmond Federal Reserve (Fed) President Thomas Barkin said on Thursday that "current monetary policy is in a good place to respond to ongoing shocks." Speaking about the US economic outlook and monetary policy, Barkin added that future rate decisions will depend on how businesses and consum
Iranian media reports, citing Al-Arabiya, suggest that the final draft of a US–Iran agreement has reportedly been completed with Pakistani mediation, with an official announcement potentially coming within hours.
ABN AMRO’s Georgette Boele notes that Sterling has weakened alongside the Euro versus the US Dollar, with energy prices a key driver. She argues UK political uncertainty could temporarily lift volatility in Sterling and gilts, but expects this phase to be short-lived.
Banco de Mexico (Banxico) released its latest meeting minutes on Thursday, in which the Middle East conflict dominated the board's discussion.
An X post from Al Jazeera reporter Ali Hashem hit newswires with statements from an unnamed source that earlier reports of an Iranian decree limiting the removal of high-grade nuclear material are false.
HSBC maintains an optimistic but selective stance on Asia, favouring markets with strong growth, innovation and improving shareholder returns.
The USD/JPY pair rose toward the 159.30 price zone, closing in on the 160.00 level, which usually prompts intervention by the Bank of Japan (BoJ).
Swiss National Bank (SNB) Vice Chairman Martin Schlegel said on Thursday that the central bank maintains an “elevated willingness” to intervene in foreign exchange markets if necessary.
The Euro (EUR) trades on the back foot against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, with EUR/USD easing from earlier intraday highs as price action remains driven by geopolitical headlines surrounding developments in the Middle East.
The GBP/USD pair falls by about 0.20% on Thursday amid concerns that the US and Iran couldn’t reach a deal, while strong US economic data was a headwind for the Pound Sterling (GBP), which dips amid weakening UK business activity.
Standard Chartered Bank economists Anubhuti Sahay and Saurav Anand now expect the Reserve Bank of India’s repo rate to rise by 50bps to 5.75% in FY27, starting in June.
Royal Bank of Canada economist Salim Zanzana notes that higher Gold prices and expanded access to foreign markets helped cushion Canada’s exports in the face of U.S. tariff pressures.
Gold (XAU/USD) trades with a downside bias on Thursday, struggling to build on the previous day’s rebound from seven-week lows as markets digest fresh headlines surrounding the US-Iran war. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades around $4,504, down nearly 0.85% on the day.
OCBC’s Christopher Wong says USD/IDR should find near‑term support after Bank Indonesia’s larger‑than‑expected 50bp hike to 5.25%, aimed at stabilising FX sentiment.
Silver (XAG/USD) trades in a narrow range on Thursday as traders continue to monitor developments surrounding the US-Iran conflict. At the time of writing, XAG/USD is trading around $75.20, hovering near two-week lows.
BNY’s Geoff Yu argues that Hungarian asset positioning is stretched after elections, with markets now watching the central bank of Hungary Magyar Nemzeti Bank's (MNB) upcoming decision.
Georgette Boele at ABN AMRO highlights that both the Euro and Sterling have fallen about 0.9% against the US Dollar since mid-May, driven by energy markets and bond yields.
Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad highlights USD/JPY trading around 159.00, with expectations it should stay below 160.00 given intervention risks and a more hawkish Bank of Japan (BoJ).
S&P Global released the flash estimate of the United States (US) S&P Global Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) on Thursday, confirming a reading of 51.7 in May, matching the April outcome. Manufacturing output improved to 55.3 from the previous 54.5, also surpassing expectations of 54.
BNY’s Bob Savage explains that the United Kingdom (UK) government’s targeted cost-of-living package seeks to cushion households from Iran-related energy shocks while avoiding a repeat of large-scale bailouts.
The British Pound (GBP) weakens against the Japanese Yen (JPY) on Thursday as traders digest the latest preliminary PMI data from both the United Kingdom and Japan. At the time of writing, GBP/JPY is trading around 213.40, hovering near one-week highs.
ING’s Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note that Oil prices sold off heavily despite evidence of tightening US fundamentals.
MUFG’s Lee Hardman notes the US Dollar is trading at stronger levels as higher US yields reflect growing expectations for multiple Federal Reserve rate hikes following the energy price shock. FOMC minutes signalled a gradual hawkish shift but did not fully endorse aggressive tightening.
Commerzbank’s Dr. Vincent Stamer argues that weak Euro area PMI data and rising input costs leave the ECB in a policy dilemma.
HSBC’s Willem Sels highlights that global equities remain supported by robust earnings growth, led by US Technology and Communications, with AI-driven capex and productivity gains at the core.
Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes GBP/USD is consolidating near 1.3440 but warns that a likely downward repricing of the UK swaps curve and a potential further leftward pivot by a Labour government could undermine the Pound.
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