Nomura’s Josie Anderson, George Buckley and Andrzej Szczepaniak expect Norges Bank to keep its policy rate at 4.25% at the August meeting, citing softer underlying inflation and benign domestic data.
ING’s Frantisek Taborsky highlights a busy Central and Eastern Europe calendar with Czech inflation, Turkey’s inflation report and key Polish data, including GDP and core inflation.
Societe Generale strategists highlight that EUR/USD has squeezed above key resistance as Dollar weakness follows softer United States (US) employment data and reduced odds of a September Fed hike. The pair is seen slightly expensive versus nat gas but near fair value on 2-year spreads.
Brown Brothers Harriman’s Elias Haddad notes that the Australian Dollar (AUD) remains one of the most attractive G10 currencies thanks to favorable carry and a hawkish Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).
Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Monday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $64.24 per troy ounce, up 1.08% from the $63.55 it cost on Friday.
Michael Pfister at Commerzbank highlights a strong Canadian labour market and improving Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) and exports as signs of real-economy recovery, but warns this is fragile due to threatened US tariffs.
Deutsche Bank strategists highlight that negotiations between Iran and Oman over a new shipping framework through the Strait of Hormuz remain finely balanced, with Tehran linking any lasting arrangement to broader demands on the US.
NZD/USD trades around 0.5895 on Monday at the time of writing, virtually unchanged on the day.
ING’s Frantisek Taborsky says Romania’s unchanged Baa3 rating at Moody’s and prior Fitch decision should ease pressure after recent ROMGBs underperformance.
EUR/CAD inches higher after three days of losses, trading around 1.6120 during the European hours on Monday. The currency cross is holding its ground, driven primarily by a resilient Euro (EUR) following positive Eurozone economic sentiment.
The Euro (EUR) ticks higher against a softer US Dollar (USD) on Monday, with the EUR/USD pair trading at the 1.1560 area at the time of writing, consolidating gains a few pips below seven-week highs at 1.1773.
The USD/CHF pair struggles to attract any meaningful buyers and remains on the back foot below the 0.8100 mark through the first half of the European session on Monday.
HSBC Asset Management reviews recent coordinated intervention by Japanese and US authorities to support the Japanese Yen, recalling the sharp carry-trade unwind during the previous episode two years ago.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), futures on NYMEX, gives back some of its early gains, but it still 1.6% higher at around $77.55 during the European trading session on Monday. The oil price retreats from its day’s high as fears of a prolonged global energy supply disruption have escalated.
Societe Generale’s Kenneth Broux reports that weaker US employment data and downward revisions have sharply reduced expectations for a September Fed hike, though one move remains priced for December.
Eurozone’s Sentix Investor Confidence data, a key indicator of Investor morale, turns positive to 0.9 in August, the first time in five months. The sentiment data turned negative in March when the Middle East war started. The data also improved to -3.1 in July.
Dow Jones futures are steady around 54,150 during European hours on Monday. Meanwhile, S&P 500 futures gain 0.16% to trade near 7,790 and Nasdaq 100 futures gain 0.39%, trading near 29,950.
BNY’s Geoff Yu and David Tam expect the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to keep rates unchanged at 4.35%, noting that markets doubt its willingness to hike despite persistent inflation and robust labor and spending data.
Silver (XAG/USD) appreciates for the second consecutive day on Monday, trading around $64.30 after confirming above July’s peak in the $63.30 area.
The GBP/JPY cross catches aggressive bids at the start of a new week and builds on its strong recovery move from the vicinity of mid-209.00s, or the lowest level since early March touched last Monday.
Commerzbank’s Michael Pfister analyses NOK/SEK through oil-price sensitivity and rate expectations. He finds the Norwegian Krone reacts more strongly to oil than the Swedish Krona, while Riksbank expectations adjust more to oil shocks than Norges Bank.
The US Dollar (USD) edges up against its peers on Monday after a vertical decline on Friday. At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades marginally higher to near 99.70.
Rabobank’s Bas van Geffen notes that talks on reopening Hormuz are progressing slowly, with Iran adding new conditions on the United States (US), keeping geopolitical risk elevated for Oil.
EUR/JPY rises after registering losses in the previous day, trading around 183.10 during the European hours on Monday. The currency cross is holding a capped tone as it sits below the 50-day Exponential moving average (EMA) while clinging to short-term support at the nine-day EMA.
Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad argues that the British Pound (GBP) requires a stronger-than-expected United Kingdom (UK) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) print to gain upside traction.
The AUD/USD pair enters a bullish consolidation phase at the start of the new week as traders opt to move to the sidelines ahead of the crucial Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting on Tuesday.
Deutsche Bank strategists report that falling energy prices and softer Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations helped push the S&P 500 and other major equity indices to new record highs last week.
The Euro (EUR) posts mild losses against the British Pound (GBP) on Monday, with the EUR/GBP pair testing Friday’s lows at 0.8560, as the situation in the Middle East muddles and Crude prices tick up, adding pressure on the Eurozone’s Oil-importing economies.
The Indian Rupee (INR) is down against the US Dollar (USD) at the start of the week. The USD/INR pair rebounds to near 95.25 as oil prices extend their recovery move and the US Dollar regains ground after a weak Friday.
Gold (XAU/USD) climbs above $4,350, hitting a fresh high during the first half of the European session on Monday, though it remains below the highest level since June 17, set on Friday in reaction to the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report.
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