ABN AMRO’s research examines how evolving Federal Reserve policy and Eurozone fundamentals may shape EUR/USD over the coming quarters.
The United States (US) Federal Reserve (Fed) announces its interest rate decision on Wednesday, another pivotal meeting for markets to gauge the stance of policymakers and new Chair Kevin Warsh as energy prices retreat after the United States and Iran reached a framework deal to reopen the Strait of
The Pound Sterling (GBP) retreats towards 1.3400 against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday following the latest UK inflation report, forcing investors to reassess hawkish bets on the Bank of England (BoE), while solid US Retail Sales boost the Greenback ahead of the Federal Reserve (Fed) decision.
The AUD/USD pair trades near 0.7070 with a neutral tone on Wednesday, as the Australian Dollar (AUD) benefits from improved risk sentiment following the latest developments in the US-Iran conflict.
NZD/USD trades around 0.5820 on Wednesday at the time of writing, down 0.24% on the day as investors reduce risk exposure ahead of the Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy announcement.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) remains under pressure despite the Bank of Japan’s latest rate hike, with analysts highlighting that the move has not been enough to trigger a sustained recovery for the Japanese currency.
European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Olaf Sleijpen said in a speech at an event organized by the European Economics & Financial Center (EEFC) in London on Wednesday that while a repeat of 2022's inflation spike appears less likely, the risk cannot be fully ruled out.
USD/CAD trades around 1.4010 on Wednesday at the time of writing, gaining 0.10% on the day. The pair maintains a bullish tone as the Canadian Dollar (CAD) remains under pressure from falling Oil prices, while traders position ahead of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy decision.
ABN AMRO economists discuss how a new chapter for the Federal Reserve could influence the US Dollar over coming months.
Retail Sales in the United States increased to $763.7 billion in May, the US Census Bureau reported on Wednesday. This print followed the 0.5% expansion recorded in the previous month and came in above market expectation (+0.5%). On a yearly basis, Retail Sales were up 6.9% during this period.
The Euro (EUR) posts moderate losses against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday, giving away some of the ground gained over the last few days, with markets showing a cautious mood ahead of the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) decision.
Societe Generale’s Kit Juckes notes that recent G10 policy moves, including a BOJ hike, have not produced dramatic FX shifts. He argues that a dovish Fed outcome would favour short USD/JPY positions.
Societe Generale’s Sam Cartwright notes that UK Headline CPI stayed at 2.8% year-on-year in May, undershooting both Bloomberg consensus and the BoE’s April MPR projection, while core inflation edged up to 2.6%.
OCBC’s Sim Moh Siong notes FX markets are in a holding pattern as traders await the FOMC, with Oil’s decline easing inflation pressures but seen as having limited further downside.
Kit Juckes at Societe Generale highlights that recent G10 central bank actions have not sparked major FX moves, with EUR/USD still range-bound. He notes deeper Eurozone GDP forecast cuts versus other regions.
Gold (XAU/USD) trades around $4,332.60 on Wednesday at the time of writing, little changed on the day, as investors remain cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy decision.
Societe Generale’s Kit Juckes relays Jan Groen’s view that the US economy shows resilient growth with sticky inflation, keeping the Fed on hold for now. He notes market pricing still leans toward a rate hike in early 2027.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) nurses mild gains against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday, as the USD/JPY pair eases to 160.20, still above 160.00, considered the limit of tolerable JPY weakness for Japanese authorities.
OCBC’s Christopher Wong notes the RBA kept rates at 4.35% while retaining a tightening bias, signalling readiness to hike if needed. However, slowing growth and rising unemployment point to a prolonged pause.
Societe Generale analysts Jitesh Kumar and Jeremy Sellem note that Brent Oil prices are normalizing following the US-Iran deal, but highlight differing adjustments across spot, volatility and option skew.
RaboResearch Global Economics & Markets discusses recent UK CPI and labour data and their implications for the Pound, EUR/GBP and GBP/USD. The bank notes softer UK inflation, signs of spare capacity in the labour market and tighter financial conditions.
UOB Global Economics & Markets Research notes that AUD/USD was little changed after the Reserve Bank of Australia paused at 4.35% following three consecutive 25 bps hikes.
OCBC’s Christopher Wong highlights that the BoJ’s widely expected 25 bp hike to 1.0% and confirmation of tapering ending in 2027 delivered limited support for the Japanese Yen.
UOB Global Economics & Markets Research highlights that Gold advanced as expectations for another Fed hike this year eased following an interim US-Iran peace deal that pushed Oil and inflation expectations lower.
ING strategists highlight that cyclical drivers have reasserted themselves in FX, underpinning a stronger Dollar over the coming months. They argue that these cyclical factors will keep the Dollar bid, delaying any meaningful downturn.
MUFG’s Derek Halpenny highlights that Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s first post-FOMC press conference comes as Brent Oil has dropped sharply, easing near-term inflation risks but not eliminating them.
Silver (XAG/USD) trades around $69.85 on Wednesday at the time of writing, down 0.25% on the day. Traders remain cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy decision later in the day, which could provide fresh guidance on the outlook for US interest rates.
Brown Brothers Harriman highlights GBP/USD trading around its 200-day moving average as UK Gilts outperform European bonds.
ING’s FX team notes that a rate hike by the ECB is fully priced into EUR/USD, limiting upside for the Euro. They stress that even additional ECB hawkishness may not translate into Euro gains, as markets already discount tighter policy.
Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Wednesday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $69.70 per troy ounce, down 0.47% from the $70.03 it cost on Tuesday.
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