TD Securities’ commodity strategy team highlights that, after a five‑week reduction in Copper longs, speculators have resumed adding net length, supported by firm Chinese premiums, low arrivals and inventory draws on the LME and SHFE.
USD/CAD trades higher near the 1.4060 area on Monday, recovering from below 1.4000 as the Canadian Dollar (CAD) weakens following softer-than-expected domestic inflation data. The US Dollar Index (DXY) also rises around 0.2% near 101.00, providing additional support to the pair.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) edges higher on Monday as heightened tensions in the Middle East drive demand for the safe-haven Greenback.
Silver (XAG/USD) trades on the front foot on Monday as buyers defend the $55.00 mark after the metal briefly slipped below it on Friday, touching its lowest level since December 2025. At the time of writing, XAG/USD trades around $56.85, up nearly 1.50% on the day.
Donald Trump opened the week on Truth Social with a promise that every American soldier killed by Iran will be repaid many times over, a directive he says has been passed to Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Daniel Caine, and every leader in the military.
The Pound Sterling reverses course and turns negative on the day as Andy Burnham is named the new Prime Minister and reassures that he will stick to the fiscal rules set by the former Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, who just resigned. The GBP/USD trades at 1.3425, after hitting a daily high of 1.3481.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) trades near the 52,000 handle on Monday, down roughly 100 points, while the S&P 500 adds 0.4% and the NASDAQ Composite climbs 0.9%, with all three coming off a losing week.
AUD/USD trades around the 0.7000 area on Monday, holding near recent highs after recovering from last week’s decline.
The United Kingdom entered a new period of political uncertainty after Rachel Reeves stepped down as Chancellor of the Exchequer as part of the first cabinet reshuffle led by newly appointed Prime Minister Andy Burnham.
Societe Generale’s Michael Haigh and Jeremy Sellem highlight that Brent has surged as US-Iran tensions, Trump’s rhetoric and Houthi blockade threats lift risk premia. Crack spreads in Asia and US have outperformed as refined products stay tighter than crude.
EUR/USD edges lower on Monday, reversing earlier gains as markets swing between risk-on and risk-off sentiment. At the time of writing, the pair trades around 1.1408, easing from an intraday high of 1.1449.
USD/JPY trades around 162.55 on Monday at the time of writing, up 0.10% on the day. After an initial pullback in the US Dollar (USD), the pair regains momentum as geopolitical concerns return to the forefront and support the Greenback.
TD Securities strategists note that softer Canadian Consumer Price Index (CPI) is lifting USD/CAD as rate divergence remains a key driver. They argue broad US Dollar (USD) strength should limit USD/CAD downside below 1.40 and see higher Oil prices as CAD-supportive on crosses but not versus USD.
BNY’s Geoff Yu sees Latin American currencies underpinned by strong balance-of-payments positions and attractive carry, even as global equity nerves rise.
Gold (XAU/USD) trades in a volatile range on Monday as markets react to conflicting headlines from the Middle East. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades around $4,010, little changed on the day after climbing to an intra-day high of $4,040.
HSBC strategists argue AUD/USD has room to rise into 2027, supported by Australia’s relatively high cash and government bond yields, which make the Australian Dollar attractive on a carry basis within G10 FX.
TD Securities’ commodity strategists, led by Bart Melek, note that Gold investors have sharply reduced long exposure as higher Oil prices from the US‑Iran conflict threaten recent disinflation progress.
Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad expects the ECB to leave rates at 2.25% this week after June’s 25 bps hike, maintaining a data-dependent stance without new projections.
NZD/USD moves higher on Monday and trades around 0.5850 at the time of writing, up 0.14% on the day, as the US Dollar (USD) weakens following the latest US inflation data.
Royal Bank of Canada’s (RBC) Abbey Xu notes that Canadian inflation eased in June, with Consumer Price Index (CPI) slowing to 2.8% year-over-year and energy prices reversing part of their earlier surge.
United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang reports GBP/USD slipping but lacking strong downside momentum, with intraday trade expected between 1.3420 and 1.3475. The prior bullish view has faded after a break of 1.3450 support, and the pair is now seen in a 1.3385–1.3495 range.
TD Securities expects the Federal Reserve to keep the Fed funds rate unchanged through 2026, as inflation stays above target and the labor market stabilizes.
USD/CAD edges higher on Monday as softer-than-expected Canadian inflation data and a firmer US Dollar (USD) weigh on the Canadian Dollar (CAD), while tensions in the Middle East keep financial markets volatile. At the time of writing, the pair is trading around 1.4045, up 0.17% on the day.
BNY’s Geoff Yu notes that Iran’s signals of continued military response alongside active mediation keep the Middle East conflict in a managed but unstable phase.
Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad expects Australia’s June labor force report to show a modest 15k job gain and unemployment steady at 4.4%, slightly above the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) projection.
HSBC strategists see NZD/USD supported by New Zealand’s strengthening growth data and an aggressive Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) hiking path. The RBNZ has begun raising rates and HSBC Economics projects 25bp hikes per quarter to 3.50% by Q3 2027.
Silver (XAG/USD) advances toward $56.90 per troy ounce on Monday at the time of writing, gaining 1.6% on the day. The precious metal continues to benefit from safe-haven demand as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East keep risk sentiment under pressure.
DBS Group Research’s Philip Wee argues that the Euro (EUR) may find support in coming weeks as markets reassess geopolitical risks and central bank divergence.
James Smith at ING highlights that UK markets have reacted calmly to Andy Burnham becoming prime minister, with risk premia contained as investors expect no major policy shocks this year.
Canada’s inflation has cooled a tad in June, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising 2.8% from a year earlier, coming in below market expectations and down from the 3.2% increase recorded in May. On a monthly basis, prices declined by 0.4%.
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