Commerzbank’s Asia FX team highlights a constructive near-term outlook for the Vietnamese Dong (VND), supported by strong Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows and robust growth. USD/VND stayed around 25,994, below its July peak, leaving VND about 1.2% stronger year-to-date.
Silver (XAG/USD) price extends its losses on Wednesday, following Gold’s path, as the latest Federal Reserve (Fed) Minutes showed that officials expect another rate increase towards the year-end. The XAG/USD pair trades at $59.69, down by over 1.67%.
Christopher Wong at OCBC Bank notes that USD/KRW continues to trade heavy as exporter US Dollar (USD) selling and a softer external backdrop support the Korean Won (KRW), even as foreign equity outflows cap gains.
Gold (XAU/USD) price pressures on the downside on Wednesday, yet it has reclaimed the $4,100 mark as US Treasury yields erased some of its earlier gains and turned negative.
Commerzbank economists note Thailand’s September CPI rose 2.8% year-on-year, below consensus but the highest since April, bringing headline inflation close to the upper end of the Bank of Thailand’s target range. They expect headline inflation to rise further on persistent supply-side pressures, yet see demand-side forces as benign. USD/THB fell to 33.62, though downside risks to the Baht remain elevated.
The US Dollar (USD) has resumed its uptrend, advancing to two-day highs while rapidly forgetting Tuesday’s hiccup. The extra gains in the Greenback have come in tandem with the equally decent advance in US Treasury yields on the belly and long end of the curve.
Societe Generale strategist Michelle Lam analyzes recent Chinese policy moves, noting that new property and monetary easing should keep growth on track and help China meet its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) target at the lower end of the range.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil trades lower on Wednesday, giving up earlier gains as a stronger US Dollar (USD) and recovering Middle East exports offset support from an unexpected decline in US crude inventories.
Standard Chartered economist Tim Leelahaphan expects the Bank of Thailand (BoT) to keep its policy rate at 1.0% through 2026 and 2027, with the BoT prioritising economic growth over inflation. He highlights asymmetric risks around this on-hold call, noting that any hikes would likely be gradual while cuts could be faster if domestic growth slows sharply.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) dives over 0.48% against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday as US Treasury yields hit a 24-year high, boosting the Greenback’s appeal, while traders await the release of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) last meeting minutes.
USD/JPY trades in a narrow range on Wednesday, with the Japanese Yen (JPY) holding a slight advantage over the US Dollar (USD) as traders assess hawkish Bank of Japan (BoJ) signals. Intervention risks near the 160.00 level also keep traders cautious.
The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note touched 5.35% on Wednesday, its highest since April 2002, and the 30-year bond hit a 24-year high. Brent is back above $100 a barrel after Iran stepped up attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz.
The New York Fed's September Survey of Consumer Expectations showed that American households expect short-term inflation to rise, while in the long term, they expect prices to cool but remain above the Federal Reserve’s 2% goal.
Governments belonging to the International Energy Agency (IEA) support accelerating the release of Oil stocks announced under the collective action agreed in March, according to a statement from the organization cited by Reuters on Wednesday.
Commerzbank Research highlights Vietnam’s Q3 GDP growth at 10.0% year-on-year, the strongest since the pandemic, driven by investment and industry. Achieving the government’s 10% full-year target would require an unusually strong Q4.
EUR/USD extends its decline on Wednesday as the Euro (EUR) remains under broad selling pressure, while the US Dollar (USD) strengthens alongside surging US Treasury yields. At the time of writing, the pair trades around 1.1195, down 0.57% on the day, hovering near its lowest level in 17 months.
US Treasury yields soar on Wednesday, with the 10- and 30-year yields reaching 24-year highs of 5.35% and 5.724%, respectively, suggesting that investors are demanding a higher premium on US debt amid inflation and fiscal policy concerns.
Rabobank’s Senior FX Strategist Jane Foley highlights Switzerland’s strong current account and budget positions, credible central bank and governance, and high liquidity as underpinning the Swiss Franc’s safe haven status.
TD Securities’ Ryan McKay and Bart Melek note heavy CTA (Commodity Trading Advisors) selling across Precious Metals, with Gold under pressure from surging real rates and a stronger US Dollar (USD).
AUD/USD falls 0.44% on Wednesday and trades around 0.6950 at the time of writing, snapping a three-day winning streak.
Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes the US Dollar (USD) is stronger against major currencies, with the Euro (EUR) lagging as French and Italian bonds lead a renewed global bond sell-off.
Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note USD/CAD around 1.4227 with the Canadian Dollar (CAD) flat versus the US Dollar (USD) but outperforming most G10 peers. CAD retains much of Tuesday’s 0.4% gain, helped by a stronger August trade balance.
All participants at the Federal Reserve's (Fed) September 15–16 meeting supported the 25-basis-point rate increase, while most judged that another hike would probably be appropriate by the end of the year.
USD/CAD rebounds sharply on Wednesday, rising nearly 0.45% as the US Dollar (USD) remains firmly bid across the board, supported by surging US Treasury yields. Attention now turns to the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) September monetary policy meeting, due at 18:00 GMT.
BNY’s Geoff Yu argues that the Eurozone recovery remains intact even as the Euro (EUR) weakens. Manufacturing PMIs and business surveys in Germany and across Europe point to strengthening demand, while fiscal stress and a softer European Central Bank (ECB) stance weigh on the currency.
Rabobank’s Senior FX Strategist Jane Foley reviews the sharp USD/JPY declines in July and September, initially driven by joint Ministry of Finance (MoF)–US Treasury intervention and later without official action. The report notes that the Bank of Japan’s gradual rate hikes are eroding the Japanese Yen’s appeal as a funding currency for carry trades, even though recent price action has reduced urgency around finding alternatives.
Societe Generale notes EUR/HUF rebounded from its 50-day moving average after a downside surprise in Hungarian CPI. Inflation remains below the MNB target, with the stronger Forint helping to curb price pressures and keep underlying trends subdued.
Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes USD/SEK is firmer on broad US Dollar (USD) strength, while Sweden’s September Consumer Price Index (CPI) data were mixed.
ING’s Deepali Bhargava notes that the Reserve Bank of India delivered its first rate hike in four years, raising the policy Repo rate to 5.50% and shifting to calibrated tightening.
Gold (XAU/USD) extends its decline on Wednesday, falling nearly 1.3% as the US Dollar (USD) and US Treasury yields resume their advance following a modest pullback the previous day.
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