EUR/USD trades under pressure on Thursday as ongoing Middle East tensions keep the US Dollar (USD) broadly supported, weighing on the Euro (EUR).
MUFG's Senior Currency Analyst Lloyd Chan highlights the Thai Baht (THB) as one of the more vulnerable Asian currencies under sustained high energy prices.
Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose argues that upcoming Turkish CPI data are largely obsolete given the looming impact of higher energy prices. He expects a strong March monthly print but stresses that external-shock inflation may be treated as transient by FX markets.
On Thursday, the US President Donald Trump posted on his Truth Social network a video of a bridge falling in Iran, pressuring Tehran to make a deal.
Futures contracts on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) shed a meager half-percent on Thursday, but that number tells almost none of the story. At the session lows, the DJIA was down more than 600 points, the S&P 500 had shed 1.5%, and the Nasdaq Composite was off 2.2%.
DBS Group Research economist Radhika Rao notes Indonesia’s March inflation eased to 3.5% year-on-year as government stimulus offset base effects and Lebaran-related pressures.
The USD/JPY pair is trading near the 159.40 price region on Thursday, having surged earlier in the day, though price action turned more volatile during the American session as headlines briefly supported risk sentiment.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil rebounds sharply on Thursday, rising more than 8% on the day, as ongoing tensions in the Middle East continue to keep a geopolitical risk premium embedded in prices amid supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz.
TD Securities’ Robert Both argues that higher Oil prices will support Canada’s 2026 GDP, but export bottlenecks limit the upside.
The British Pound retreats during the North American session after US President Donald Trump escalated the conflict, hinting that it will at least extend for two to three weeks. At the time of writing, the GBP/USD trades at 1.32144, down 0.40%.
Lorie Logan, President of the Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Dallas, said that the Fed should not let balance sheets distract them from their main mission. Logan also claimed that central bank balance sheet growth isn’t bad if it meets the public's need during a speech at her bank on Thursday.
Gold (XAU/USD) stages a rebound on Thursday and trims most of its intraday losses as sellers fail to sustain a move below the $4,600 level, while easing US Dollar (USD) and Treasury yields provide additional support.
BNY's EMEA Macro Strategist Geoff Yu argues that the National Bank of Poland’s (NBP) March rate cut underestimated inflation risks linked to the regional conflict.
Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose notes that improving PMIs in Poland, Czech Republic and Hungary had signalled a potential upswing, helped by Germany’s earlier recovery signs.
EUR/GBP edges higher on Thursday, though it lacks strong follow-through buying, as choppy price action persists amid heightened volatility across the FX space.
Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) analysts point out that recent and prospective tariff changes, higher energy prices and CUSMA renewal talks will shape Canada’s macro backdrop, relevant for the Canadian Dollar (CAD).
The AUD/USD fell to near the 0.6890 price region on Thursday, as markets turned sour amid escalating Middle East fighting and a surge in the safe-haven US Dollar (USD).
Societe Generale’s Kunal Kundu expects the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee to keep the repo rate at 5.25% with a neutral stance, focusing on stability after recent Oil and FX shocks.
ING analysts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note that Oil prices rebounded strongly, with Brent above $107/bbl and WTI near $106/bbl, after US President Donald Trump threatened a further escalation of the conflict with Iran.
TD Securities strategists Gennadiy Goldberg, Molly Brooks and Jan Nevruzi argue that proposed Basel III endgame and related US bank capital changes should ultimately support wider US swap spreads, particularly at the long end.
BNP Paribas analysts assess how the new energy shock from war in Iran and higher Oil and gas prices compares with 2022 for the Eurozone. They argue the current backdrop is less inflationary, with weaker demand and fewer supply constraints, and central banks now more reactive.
MUFG’s Lee Hardman argues the US Dollar’s response to the Middle East-driven energy shock has lost momentum. He cites lingering optimism about a relatively quick end to the conflict, a higher US policy risk premium, and yield spreads moving against the Dollar as key factors.
Commerzbank’s Michael Pfister argues that Mexico’s strong US export performance and extensive USMCA compliance have cushioned the Mexican economy and the Peso from recent US tariff shocks.
GBP/JPY trades with a mild downside bias on Thursday, though it lacks strong follow-through selling and trims part of its intraday losses as markets remain volatile.
Societe Generale analysts note the RBI has barred banks from offering INR NDFs to residents and non-residents to curb speculation, but they argue Rupee headwinds remain structural, tied to FPI outflows, Oil shock dynamics and slowing domestic growth, with 10-year yields seen heading toward 7.20–7.25
Rabobank’s Senior FX Strategist Jane Foley discusses recent Swiss inflation data and implications for the Swiss Franc. Foley notes that low Swiss CPI reduces pressure on the SNB to cut rates below zero, while credible FX intervention and safe-haven demand should keep CHF firm.
According to a report from the US Department of Labour (DOL) released on Thursday, the number of US citizens submitting new applications for unemployment insurance decreased to 202K for the week ending March 28.
TD Securities analysts characterize the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) March Summary of Deliberations as slightly dovish, consistent with the March 18 decision. They stress patience, citing inflation near target, weaker GDP, housing softness and labour market headwinds.
ING’s Frantisek Taborsky notes that Central and Eastern European currencies remain under pressure despite recent gains in the Forint, Zloty and Koruna.
Standard Chartered’s India economists Anubhuti Sahay and Saurav Anand cut India’s FY27 GDP growth forecast to 6.4% from 7.0% and FY26 to 7.3% from 7.6%, citing elevated energy prices and Middle East tensions.
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