After Wednesday's near 2% drubbing, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) spent Thursday doing something stranger than falling: very little.
USD/JPY struggles for direction on Thursday as fears of intervention by Japanese authorities cap upside, even as the US Dollar (USD) strengthens amid renewed hostilities between the United States and Iran.
The AUD/USD pair trades near the 0.6980 level on Thursday, hovering near a two-month low as the Australian Dollar (AUD) remains pressured by cautious market sentiment and renewed US Dollar (USD) demand. At the time of writing, the pair trades at 0.6994, down 0.15% on the day.
Standard Chartered economists Hunter Chan and Shuang Ding argue that higher Oil and AI-related goods prices have lifted China’s import prices and PPI, ending a multi-year deflation spell.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) registers losses of 0.19% on Thursday after the latest US inflation report reflected the impact of the Iran war on producer prices, while an escalation of hostilities between Washington and Tehran triggered a recovery in Oil prices.
BNY’s Geoff Yu says Latin American currencies remain relatively resilient even as iFlow data show declining positions in high-yielders under a new Federal Reserve backdrop.
ING’s Min Joo Kang expects the Bank of Japan to deliver a 25bp rate hike in June, supported by resilient growth, negative real rates and upside inflation risks. Despite soft May inflation, underlying pressures and firm wages justify further normalisation.
Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad reports the Bank of Canada (BoC) kept its policy rate at 2.25% for a fifth consecutive meeting and signaled no urgency to hike despite two-way optionality.
Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report USD/JPY is steady but elevated, with recent gains already surpassing prior intervention-trigger levels. A 25 bps Bank of Japan (BoJ) hike on Tuesday is widely anticipated, and markets price nearly one more increase by December.
Nomura analysts Josie Anderson, George Buckley, Andrzej Szczepaniak and David Seif expect the SNB to keep its policy rate at 0.00% at the 18 June meeting. They highlight low Swiss inflation, mixed activity data and ongoing Iran war uncertainty.
Gold (XAU/USD) slides to a six-month low on Thursday, wiping out all the gains recorded this year as a combination of hawkish central bank expectations, a stronger US Dollar (USD) and technical selling keeps buyers on the sidelines.
ING’s James Smith highlights a softer UK backdrop than in 2022, with vacancies falling, unemployment rising and wage growth slowing, while firms and workers have limited pricing and bargaining power. He judges that the Bank of England (BoE) is torn between a prolonged pause and a symbolic move.
Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret highlight renewed Canadian Dollar (CAD) weakness as softer Oil prices and geopolitical concerns push USD/CAD to new year-to-date highs.
EUR/USD struggles near two-month lows on Thursday as traders show a muted reaction to the latest European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decision. Meanwhile, escalating tensions in the Middle East keep risk sentiment subdued and support the US Dollar (USD), leaving the Euro (EUR) on the defensive.
Nordea’s Jan von Gerich and Tuuli Koivu note that the European Central Bank (ECB) raised rates by 25bp and signalled readiness to tighten further as inflation stays above target.
BNY’s Bob Savage highlights that Oil initially spiked on renewed U.S.–Iran tensions before easing, but analysts remain concerned about supply risks and the durability of any peace deal.
Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), explains the ECB's decision to raise key rates by 25 basis points at the June policy meeting and responds to questions from the press.
Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), explains the ECB's decision to raise key rates by 25 basis points at the June policy meeting and responds to questions from the press.
Deutsche Bank’s Sanjay Raja expects UK headline CPI to edge up to 3.01% year-on-year in May, with core CPI at 2.72% and Services CPI at 3.65%. The bank projects CPI to average 3.1% this year before easing to 2.6% next year and 2.3% in 2028, with risks to inflation seen skewed to the upside.
United States (US) President Donald Trump said on Thursday that negotiations with Iran remain ongoing but warned of further military action, stating that additional strikes are expected later in the day. Trump made these statements in a Fox News interview.
TD Securities’ Prashant Newnaha and Howard Du argue recent weak Australian data and Federal Budget tax changes should keep the RBA cash rate at 4.35% next week and likely on hold for longer.
Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), explains the ECB's decision to raise key rates by 25 basis points at the June policy meeting and responds to questions from the press.
Silver (XAG/USD) extends its bearish move on Thursday and trades around $63.00, down 0.58% on the day at the time of writing.
Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) economist Claire Fan notes that Canada’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) contracted in Q1, but measures of excess slack such as the unemployment rate still align with prior tracking. Fan keeps its growth outlook unchanged, instead lowering potential GDP estimates.
Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), explains the ECB's decision to raise key rates by 25 basis points at the June policy meeting and responds to questions from the press.
ING’s Warren Patterson notes that weaker Chinese crude imports and strong US exports have temporarily eased pressure on Oil, but he stresses these supports are not sustainable. China’s May 2026 crude imports fell sharply, while higher US exports are being drawn from inventories.
Nomura’s European economics team expects the SNB to keep emphasising an elevated willingness to intervene in FX markets, despite recent CHF depreciation against EUR.
Producer inflation in the United States (US) as measured by the change in the Producer Price Index (PPI), climbed to its highest level since November 2022 at 6.5% in May, from 5.7% in April, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Thursday.
Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes USD/JPY is trading tightly around 160.50, just below its late-April pre-intervention high, with a 25 bps Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hike to 1.00% already fully priced.
"The United States will be hitting Iran (Whose Navy, Air Force, Radar, Anti Aircraft, and all other forms of Defense, together with most of its offensive capability, are GONE!), VERY HARD TONIGHT," US President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social on Thursday and added:
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