NZD/USD rises on Monday and trades around 0.5850 at the time of writing, up 1.42% on the day. The pair rebounds after several days of decline, supported by improving risk sentiment and macroeconomic factors favorable to the New Zealand Dollar (NZD).
The Euro (EUR) rebounds against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday as the Greenback eases following its recent rally, allowing EUR/USD to rebound from the seven-month lows touched on Friday.
USD/JPY declines on Monday, trading around 159.20 at the time of writing, down 0.33% on the day as the Japanese Yen (JPY) gains modest ground ahead of a crucial week for global central banks, with policy decisions from the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) scheduled for Wednesday and
WTI crude slid over 3% on Monday, opening near 100.00 before selling off through the session to settle below 95.00 per barrel.
United States (US) President Donald Trump said he encourages other countries to come and help the US, claiming that numerous countries told him they’re on their way when discussing the Strait of Hormuz ahead of a lunch at the Kennedy Center on Monday.
The GBP/USD pair is trading near the 1.3310 price region, trimming almost all its losses from Friday and breaking its four-day losing streak, as investors seem to have digested the United States/Israeli escalation in the war against Iran over the weekend.
Gold (XAU/USD) trades broadly flat on Monday, even as the US Dollar (USD) and Treasury yields ease after their recent rally.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) climbs around 1.2% on Monday, reclaiming ground above 47,000 after Friday's subdued close near 46,500. The S&P 500 rose over 1%, recovering back toward the 6,700 level, while the Nasdaq Composite gained more than 1.2%, closing near 22,400.
The Euro (EUR) edges lower against the British Pound (GBP) on Monday, with EUR/GBP trimming earlier gains as traders refrain from making aggressive directional bets ahead of the European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of England (BoE) interest-rate decisions due later this week.
AUD/USD rises on Monday, trading around 0.7060 at the time of writing, up 1.16% on the day. The pair rebounds strongly after two days of losses, supported by renewed optimism around the Australian Dollar (AUD) and expectations of further monetary tightening in Australia.
MUFG highlights that United Kingdom (UK) rate expectations have flipped from cuts to a possible hike as the energy shock lifts inflation risks, supporting recent Pound Sterling (GBP) outperformance versus European peers.
Nordea economists Kjetil Olsen and Sara Midtgaard expect the Sweden's central bank, Riksbank to leave its policy rate at 1.75% on 19 March and through 2026, as inflation forecasts are only modestly revised and uncertainty over energy prices is high.
TD Securities’ Senior Commodity Strategist Ryan McKay analyzes how disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz and Bab El-Mandeb are reshaping Saudi crude export risks and bypass capacity, with implications for Oil supply tightness.
National Bank of Canada (NBC) economists Matthieu Arseneau and Alexandra Ducharme say Canada’s latest CPI print shows inflation under control before the recent rise in Oil prices. Headline and core measures are both below 2.0%, with shelter inflation moderating.
ING’s Warren Patterson revises the base case for global Energy markets, abandoning an earlier assumption of a quick two-week disruption in the Strait of Hormuz.
Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) Senior Economist Claire Fan notes that Canadian headline inflation slowed to 1.8% in February, but base effects from last year’s GST/HST holiday and the removal of the consumer carbon tax distort comparisons.
Rabobank’s Senior FX Strategist Jane Foley argues that while the Swiss Franc meets many safe-haven criteria, its strength remains problematic for the SNB given very low inflation and a zero policy rate.
USD/CAD trades on the back foot on Monday as the Canadian Dollar (CAD) draws support from a softer US Dollar (USD), while traders show a muted reaction to the latest Canadian inflation data as attention remains firmly focused on heightened geopolitical tensions surrounding the ongoing US-Iran war.
BNY’s Head of Markets Macro Strategy Bob Savage underlines a notable break in traditional correlations between the Dollar, Oil and equities as investors navigate the Iran conflict and central bank meetings.
MUFG analysts maintain a short EUR/USD stance, arguing that the Euro faces a larger negative terms-of-trade shock from higher Oil and natural gas prices.
The United States (US) Industrial Production rose 0.2% MoM in February versus the 0.7% advance from January. At the same time, Capacity Utilization stood at 76.3%, matching the revised figure from January, according to a Federal Reserve (Fed) report.
TD Securities’ Daniel Ghali warns Copper will increasingly need to draw from exchange warehouses as global deficits bite.
Societe Generale economists note Euro area industrial production fell sharply in January despite improving PMIs and German orders.
ING’s Warren Patterson highlights that Oil markets are repricing for a longer disruption of flows through the Strait of Hormuz, with around 8m b/d of crude already shut in.
TD Securities’ Daniel Ghali notes persistent Chinese demand has kept the Shanghai arbitrage window open, supporting international Silver buying. Despite strong physical flows and CME warehouse draws, visible stocks remain ample relative to dealer shorts.
Rabobank’s Senior FX Strategist Jane Foley notes that the Swiss Franc has underperformed typical safe-haven expectations since the Middle East conflict began, partly due to the SNB’s intervention warnings.
Silver (XAG/USD) trades around $79.70 on Monday at the time of writing, down 1.12% on the day. The white metal is under pressure as investors adopt a cautious stance ahead of this week’s monetary policy announcements from major central banks, particularly the Federal Reserve (Fed).
Canada’s inflation cooled in February, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising 1.8% from a year earlier, a touch below market expectations and easing from the 2.3% increase recorded in January. On a monthly basis, prices rose 0.5%.
Nordea economists Kjetil Olsen and Sara Midtgaard argue that much higher Norwegian inflation and an energy price shock will force Norges Bank to tighten further.
BNY’s Head of Markets Macro Strategy Bob Savage notes the Australian Dollar (AUD) is entering the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting with one of the most hawkish policy profiles in the G10, yet without a surge in inflows.
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