USD/CAD trades on the back foot on Monday, snapping a four-day winning streak as markets monitor evolving developments surrounding ongoing US-Iran negotiations. At the time of writing, the pair is trading around 1.3803 after easing from an intraday high near 1.3820.
Scotiabank’s Global FX Strategy team highlights that global benchmark Oil prices are lower, with WTI nearing the psychologically important $90/bbl level and Brent slipping toward the mid-$90s after briefly trading above $100/bbl.
UOB’s Jester Koh notes that Singapore’s 1Q26 GDP was sharply revised higher and that MTI kept its 2026 growth forecast at 2.0–4.0%. The bank raises its 2026 GDP forecast to 3.2%, citing sustained AI-related demand and strong electronics indicators.
The Greenback has started the week on the back foot, receding to two-week lows on the back of the generalised improvement in the risk complex, all in response to rising optimism on a potential US-Iran deal.
The Euro (EUR) advances during Monday’s session, up 0.37% amid renewed hopes for an agreement between the US and Iran to extend the ceasefire by 60 days and discuss a deal regarding Iran’s uranium enrichment program. The EUR/USD pair trades at 1.1645 at the time of writing.
Gold (XAU/USD) rebounds sharply on Monday as hopes for a US-Iran deal to end the war in the Middle East and reopen the Strait of Hormuz weigh on the US Dollar (USD) and Oil prices. At the time of writing, XAU/USD is trading around $4,572, up 1.40% on the day.
GBP/JPY trades with a positive bias on Monday as the British Pound (GBP) outperforms the Japanese Yen (JPY) amid improving market sentiment surrounding a potential US-Iran deal. At the time of writing, the cross is trading around 214.52, up 0.30% on the day.
Scotiabank’s Global FX Strategy team observes renewed strength in non-energy commodities such as copper, while emphasizing that Gold remains anchored by the technically important $4500/oz level.
The US Dollar (USD) kicks off the new trading week on the back foot as investors continue to assess news that a potential US-Iran deal could be clinched anytime soon.
UOB’s Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note that USD/CNH has slipped toward the lower end of its recent range after trading tightly between 6.7923 and 6.8033.
Scotiabank’s Global FX Strategy team, including Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret, notes that the Canadian Dollar is flat against the Dollar and underperforming other G10 currencies due to its differentiated risk profile.
Citing mediators, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on Monday that progress toward finalizing an agreement to end the war between the United States (US) and Iran has slowed down, citing ongoing disagreements over Iran's nuclear program and Tehran's demand for financial relief.
Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad expects the Bank of Korea (BoK) to hold its policy rate at 2.50%, but warns of a hawkish surprise aimed at curbing Korean Won (KRW) weakness.
USD/JPY consolidates on Monday after opening the week with a bearish gap as the US Dollar (USD) comes under pressure amid growing optimism that the United States (US) and Iran are moving closer toward a deal that could eventually reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
HSBC Asset Management spotlights Asia’s small-cap stocks as a strong performer over the past five years, outperforming regional large caps with lower volatility and better sector diversification.
TD Securities economists, led by Robert Both, expect the Bank of Canada to keep the overnight rate at 2.25% through 2026 before lifting it back to a 2.75% neutral level in 2027.
In a post published on Truth Social on Monday, United States (US) President Donald Trump noted that negotiations with the Islamic Republic of Iran are proceeding nicely.
UOB’s Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann expect USD/SGD to edge lower and test 1.2760 in the near term, though a sustained break below that level is unlikely. They maintain a 1–3 week range-trading view between 1.2730 and 1.2820, with major support at 1.2730 seen as intact.
DBS Group Research economist Chua Han Teng assesses Singapore’s economic outlook as resilient but increasingly tested by Middle East tensions and energy risks. The bank highlights strong 1Q26 GDP data, robust AI-driven exports, and solid services and construction activity.
Oil prices gapped lower at Monday’s opening times, accelerating the decline observed in the last half of the previous week.
The British Pound (GBP) clings to opening gains around 1.3500 against the US Dollar (USD) during the late European trading session on Monday. The GBP/USD pair trades higher as the market sentiment remains risk-on due to expectations that the United States (US) and Iran will reach a deal soon.
Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad expects the National Bank of Hungary (MNB) to keep its policy rate at 6.25% for a third straight meeting.
HSBC Asset Management discusses how rising global bond yields, including higher US 10-year Treasuries, are affecting global equities. The report argues that current yield moves are still consistent with an environment stocks can tolerate, as real yields remain low and profit growth is strong.
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading higher on Monday, favoured by a moderate risk appetite amid recent comments from the US and Iran hinting at progress in peace negotiations.
The Indian Rupee (INR) opens on a strong note against the US Dollar (USD) at the start of the week. The USD/INR pair extends its losing streak for the fourth trading day on Monday, sliding to near 95.20, the lowest level seen in almost two weeks.
According to Iran's official news agency, Iranian central bank chief travels to Qatar after Qatari delegation visited Tehran regarding frozen funds.
United States (US) President Donald Trump said in a post on Truth Social during the European trading session on Monday that the deal with Iran will “either be a great and meaningful one, or there will be no deal”.
The Euro (EUR) remains practically flat against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, capped below the top of last week’s range, in the 1.1660-1.1675 area, with seven-week lows, at 1.1575 relatively close.
UOB’s Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note USD/JPY pulled back sharply after closing at 159.19, with scope to test 158.70 while a sustained drop below that level and 158.40 strong support is seen as unlikely.
MUFG’s Lloyd Chan highlights that higher United States (US) 2-year yields and elevated Brent prices are weighing on Indonesian Rupiah (IDR), Philippine Peso (PHP) and Indian Rupee (INR).
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