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The USD/JPY pair trades near 161.00 on Friday, easing slightly after reaching a two-year high of 161.81 on Thursday, and breaking a five-day winning streak for the US Dollar (USD).The Japanese Yen (JPY) remains fragile as pressure mounts over a possible new intervention by authorities to strengthen

The Swiss Franc is the weakest major into the weekly close, dragging USD/CHF to a fresh high for the year. The tidy explanation is a wartime safe-haven bid unwinding now that the US and Iran have struck a deal; the trouble is that the Franc was never much of a haven in this war.

USD/CHF extends gains on Friday even as the US Dollar (USD) eases slightly after rising to more than one-year highs. Diverging monetary policy expectations between the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Swiss National Bank (SNB) keep demand tilted toward the US Dollar over the Swiss Franc (CHF).

NZD/USD trades around 0.5740 at the time of writing on Friday, down 0.28% on the day, as the US Dollar (USD) continues to benefit from expectations of a restrictive monetary policy stance in the United States (US).

The Pound Sterling recovers some ground after reaching a three-month low on Friday at 1.3163, sponsored by the Fed’s hawkish tilt, but edges up 0.18% amid thin trading conditions due to a holiday in the US. The GBP/USD trades at 1.3226, yet it is poised to end with weekly losses of 1.25%.

EUR/USD stages a rebound on Friday as a pullback in the US Dollar (USD) helps the Euro (EUR) stabilize after recent losses. At the time of writing, the pair trades around 1.1470 after bouncing from a three-month low of 1.1417 touched earlier in the day.

The Crude Oil market has spent the week busily unwinding a war that has not actually been settled.

Iran’s Foreign Ministry confirmed on Friday that a planned meeting in Switzerland with US officials had been postponed, adding that preparations are already underway for a new meeting in the coming days, Reuters reported.

Nordea’s research suggests EUR/USD upside is constrained in coming months by interest rate differentials and relative growth. The European Central Bank is seen closer to the end of its hiking cycle than the Federal Reserve, while Eurozone data remain softer than US figures.

Gold (XAU/USD) remains under pressure on Friday as traders assess the latest news about the US-Iran peace deal and the Federal Reserve's (Fed) hawkish monetary policy announcement. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades around $4,150 after hitting a one-week low of $4,121 earlier in the day.

Nordea expects USD/JPY to remain high as wide US–Japan yield differentials persist and the Bank of Japan stays very accommodative. While some gradual BoJ normalization is anticipated, it is seen as too modest to materially weaken the Japanese Yen near term.

Deutsche Bank’s Galina Pozdnyakova, Jim Reid and Luke Templeman highlight that next week’s main macro focus will be global flash PMIs and several key inflation releases.

Nordea analysts expect the Dollar to stay supported in coming months as the Federal Reserve maintains a relatively hawkish stance and US data remain firm. They argue that US growth and inflation dynamics justify higher yields versus peers, limiting Dollar downside.

USD/CAD trades on the front foot on Friday despite a modest pullback in the US Dollar (USD), as weaker-than-expected Canadian Retail Sales data weighs on the Canadian Dollar (CAD). At the time of writing, the pair trades around 1.4170, its highest level since April 2025.

Silver (XAG/USD) trades around $64.85 on Friday at the time of writing, down 1.31% on the day. The white metal remains under pressure for a third consecutive day as investors reassess the outlook for US monetary policy and developments in the Middle East.

ING’s Francesco Pesole highlights that Andy Burnham’s by-election win paves his way to become UK Prime Minister, with betting markets expecting a transition by late summer. The absence of a political risk premium in Pound assets suggests investors see limited fiscal disruption.

Citing a senior US official on Friday, Reuters reported that Israel and Hezbollah have agreed to a ceasefire at 4 p.m. local time on Friday.

UOB Global Economics & Markets Research reports that Oil prices stabilized after comments from US Vice President JD Vance confirmed tankers carrying over 12 million barrels had crossed the Strait of Hormuz. Brent closed at $79.85 and WTI at $76.60.

UOB Global Economics & Markets Research reports that GBP/USD fell sharply after the Bank of England left rates unchanged at 3.75%, before trimming losses to trade near 1.3236. The BOE decision saw a 7–2 vote, with two members preferring a hike to 4.00%.

DBS Group Research strategist Chang Wei Liang notes that USD/JPY has broken above 161, returning to levels that previously triggered official action.

UOB Global Economics & Markets Research notes that the US Dollar extended gains after the Fed’s hawkish hold, pushing USD/JPY sharply higher to 161.37. The pair is now trading near levels that previously triggered Japanese authorities’ intervention.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s Elias Haddad notes that foreign investors sharply increased purchases of long-term US securities in April, with inflows over the past year more than offsetting the US trade deficit.

UOB Global Economics & Markets Research notes that USD/SGD closed at 1.2900, with the Singapore Dollar Nominal Effective Exchange Rate (S$NEER) estimated at 1.75% above its mid-point.

Gold (XAU/USD) extends losses for the third consecutive day on Friday, hitting one-week lows at $4,121, on track to close a three-week losing streak.

According to UOB Global Economics & Markets Research, EUR/USD extended its recent decline as the US Dollar index hit a one-year high following the Fed’s hawkish hold.

DBS Group Research’s Chang Wei Liang points out that an interim US–Iran agreement has reopened the Strait of Hormuz, allowing traffic to resume while talks continue.

MUFG’s Derek Halpenny notes the US Dollar has extended gains after a record hawkish shift in the Fed’s dot plot, even as Oil remains sharply lower over the past month.

ING strategists Francesco Pesole, Frantisek Taborsky and Chris Turner note that the Dollar has held post-Fed gains, keeping USD/JPY elevated in intervention territory.

UOB Global Economics & Markets Research highlights that Gold eased as hawkish Fed signals and a stronger US Dollar pressured the metal. An interim US–Iran ceasefire reduced inflation fears and contributed to softer Oil, further dampening Gold’s appeal as an inflation hedge.

DBS Group Research strategist Chang Wei Liang warns that GBP/USD could stay volatile after easing towards 1.32, as Labour’s Burnham leads the Makerfield by‑election.